Cobra's Market View

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows more accumulation than distribution. The accumulation is down while distribution is down too, so it's a trending phase, so more up?

• When accumulation and distribution are down means we're in trending phase.

• When accumulation is up, distribution is down, it's a bottoming phase.

• When accumulation is down, distribution is up, it's the topping phase.

Smart money is buying, so it's kind of condition 2.), the pullback was over?


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

Summary of the week's stock picks. Very good week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2016&p=221276#p221276

VERY LONG TERM
MONTHLY percentage performance back to the big low of 3/9/2009
Domestic and international
Kind of shocking is:
One-and-one-half years down on TRANSPORTS (brown)
Almost two years down on EMERGING (dashed pink)
etc.

The stock picks for the next week are here:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2025&p=221279#p221279

Weekly, Daily, and Monthly candles. Dailies.. possible support/ hammers of sorts.. weeklies look weak, monthlies weak Index wise. VIX inverted hammer monthly.

Long term P&F

Industry % Weeklies - Utilities up big

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm

Couple rolling over to the sell side, but not everyone yet.

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily

Yields

Yields v2.0

ZN1! / SPX (10yr T-note/SPX) W/D
ZB1! / SPX (30y T-bond/SPX) W/D

I see VIX 13 before more bear

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX ... 2236236434

WSJ TSM Block Sales data
Cumulative graph: crossing under the 20d SMA
20d SMA w/0 line graph: 20d SMA going negative

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... egade-blog

interesting about zh. sounds like the authors do know some sht

Economic Report:
"Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2016, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.

Personal consumption expenditures are decelerating; they grew 3.6% in 2Q15, but only 1.9% in 1Q16. For the first time in 4 quarters, durable goods purchased contracted (-1.6%) while spending on non-durable goods was weak (+1%). Overall capital investment contracted .7% in 3Q15, increasing to -3.5% in 1Q16. CRE and IP investment dropped the last three quarters while investment in equipment declined the last two. And exports contracted 2.6% in 1Q16. The above report contains only three positives: the consumer is still spending (albeit weakly), residential investment is gaining ground, and local government spending ticked up 2.6%. Aside from those points, the report contains little to cheer about. This is the type of environment companies struggle in."

http://community.xe.com/blog/xe-market- ... at-edition

From It is what it is department:Slippery road ahead.

NEW IPO:
Liberty Media spun off the Atlanta Braves on 18 April, ticker symbols: BATRA and BATRK
These symbols have already been INCLUDED in the QQQ.
Good thing they are only currently weighted at 0% and 0.01%, respectively, so …. they won’t have any effect on the QQQ.
[Some investor/fans must be pretty pizzed off...]
http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news ... ?ana=yahoo

josephli wrote:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... egade-blog
interesting about zh. sounds like the authors do know some sht

as posted on cobra's friday board:
Bloomberg “unmasks” Zero Hedge:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... egade-blog
Zero Hedge responds:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-2 ... zero-hedge

BullBear52x wrote:From It is what it is department:

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Slippery road ahead.

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Ooopz