Cobra's Market View

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows more distribution than accumulation, nor marginally though, so I'll need see the next week. My guess is we're just in range, going nowhere.

• When accumulation and distribution are down means we're in trending phase.

• When accumulation is up, distribution is down, it's a bottoming phase.

• When accumulation is down, distribution is up, it's the topping phase.

Smart money didn't do much this week, so at least no sharp selling means no top yet.


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

Summary of the week's stock picks. All candidates were eliminated.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2025&p=221732#p221732

Michael Lewis [Liar’s Poker, The Big Short] reviews a new book: “The End of Alchemy”
“King’s book draws on his experience of running a central bank [BOE]-- and of managing a financial crisis -- to diagnose the ills of modern finance.
“The first thing that King thinks must be done is to separate the boring bits of banking (providing a safe place to deposit money, facilitating payments) from the exciting ones (trading)…
“The riskier assets from which banks stand most to gain (and lose) would then be vetted by the central bank, in advance of any crisis, to determine what it would be willing to lend against them in a pinch if posted as collateral...
“It would also have a handy, simple rule to determine if any given bank is solvent: the difference between its “effective liquid assets” and its “effective liquid liabilities... The rule -- call it the King Rule -- would be that a bank’s effective liquid assets must exceed its effective liquid liabilities. If they don’t, the bank is insolvent, and its deposits would be moved without any panic or trouble to a bank that isn’t.
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/ ... rom-itself

The stock picks for the next week:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2032&p=221735#p221735

Weeklies Dailies Candles. Dailies looking bullish hammers off of MA/Support in some cases. Weeklies weakish.. NYSE holds 50w SMA, and VIX daily/weekly weaker but on horizontal support. DXY Weekly hammer

P&F long term. VIX weak still

Industry % Weeklies.. REITs ?? strong SPY higher vol on Friday, as we outside reversal SPY candle , hammer SPX.

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm

New Hi/Low Ratio barely budges on that last pullback, Put/Call got close to extremes, some under sell but trying to hook up.

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily

/CL -USOIL W/D/4hr possible bearish rising wedge daily within a larger possible invs H&S , 4hr H&S.. and now this :

...Saudi Arabia has fired long-serving oil minister Ali al-Naimi, on Saturday. For years, Ali al Naimi was the most important person in the world of oil: the former CEO of Saudi Aramco ascended to the post of Saudi oil minister in 1995, and over the past 21 years had the power to send the price of oil soaring or plunging with one word.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-0 ... r-reshuff?

DXY daily showing strength on the weekly.. daily.. resistance of sorts..

/CL 50d/200d in the 39.90 range.

"There's never just one cockroach"
According to Fitch Ratings, the Friday/Saturday bankruptcy filings by Ultra Petroleum and Midstates Petroleum “pushed the energy high-yield default rate to 13%, topping the previous record of 9.7% set in 1999.
Their filings added $3.1 billion to the high-yield energy bond default volume.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/energy-h ... igh-2016-5

Last seven days %
Q: Who is moving up (other than gold)?
A: Hmmm, staples and utilities (the defensives; dotted lines)
This is a bit of a bear profile until bulls reverse this action… and oil (lime) pulling down doesn’t help the bull case….

From " It is what it is department"

Well one of my favorites has written a really good missive helping to explain bad statistics
http://www.salientpartners.com/epsilon- ... cal-truth/

if you are wondering about the dollar weighted index that has such a high correlation to markets it is here
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TWEXB

from the fwiw department… ...some possible choppy paths… SPX 2hr -with 60m indicators/ma's.Possible bullish falling wedge, done or not done, bull flag, or bigger H&S. 2074 KEY level.

Falling wedge breakout?, wave 5 up?, I go by a lower BB dead cat bounce if mid BB were taken out, bears will have a rough week.

see sell the rip on SPX:VIX ratio. we are entering sell the rip zone here, mid BB ceiling is obstacle for bulls we will see this coming week. institution index is not so healthy either.

Trades with cats, do you have any thoughts regarding the situation regarding Saudi Arabia's oil minister? Thanks!

see daily on MACD histogram, yes, it's oversold in most of indicators but I would like to see a turn up higher bar to say bears are done.

This chart shows how successful a dead cat bounce play under negative histogram. I report you decided, peace!