Cobra's Market View

Smart money not selling much this week, so guess bulls are OK.


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

Don’t forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2062, thanks!

Summary of the week's stock picks: Not bad.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2057&p=223741#p223741

WSJ TSM Block Money flow is trending up

Guys, please don't forget our weekly sentiment poll, thanks.
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2062

pezhead9000 wrote:WSJ TSM Block Money flow is trending up

Very bullish?

Been on vacation was surprised at what hasn't happened.

Oil- It looks like we are close to that two or three times a year when fundamentals and traders have to get together and clear the excess out of the system. Seasonally we are finally getting a few drawdowns, they sure haven't been very big and they showed up late but they did make it. I see algos used it as a reason to pop the price up, sort of like getting a soccer scholarship to college based on all those trophies from the "we don't keep score" leagues.

I also saw that the fracking CEO's are keeping their word and returning to drilling now that price has touched $50.So award Goldman two points for that forecast (above 50 supply starts increasing fast).

West african production is still way down, I don't know where the Canadians are on their restart. Venezuela looks like it is very close to dissolving into failed state chaos, just like OPEC.

I am still looking for something that explains how US oil usage is up but shipping and retailing are down hard. Maybe it is all those people in their new pickup trucks driving around for job interviews.

Bottom line is I don't see much more upside from here. On the other hand I think it will take some really ugly inventory numbers to get the sell-off going, so I would be keeping my powder dry for now.

S&P has gone up to a magic number on declining volume. Who hasn't seen this before. And of course we have the required hockey stick economic projections to go with it identical to the last several years. Prospects for earnings increases are worse than they were a year ago, approved buybacks are lower and corporate debt levels are higher. They seem to be done laying people off so instead they have frozen purchases. The technical picture says higher highs but with no fundamental support I don't see this going very far.

Cobra wrote:

pezhead9000 wrote:WSJ TSM Block Money flow is trending up

Very bullish?

Yes - It would appear that way in the near term.

Longer-term, not so sure. Attached TSM Block money flow since 2010 & SPX with PE.

More bullish signals

From: It is what it is department.

First lower histogram bar closed on daily chart with most bar type gone caution from bullish, I will say bears are not done yet.Full STO also give bears the benefit of the doubt.Weekly candle bearish. There I finally find something to support my bearish bias so I must be right.

UUP suggests that inflation is on the rise. weekly sector summary pointing at defensive sectors are where the money is going to.

GLD is trap inside a consolidation range right under 20/50 ma resistance, bearish bias until a breakout above 122.5

AAPL is on the buy, 96 failed to support it will be a creaming sell.

CAT got mini IHS, look to a retest of 77, above that is a screaming buy. only weak dollar will be possible, King green back is a must to follow.DBA bottoming is firmed. Inflation is imminent with this type of strength.

lastly....SPY, Come2Papa sell will continue or ended here? 210.69 is key, with this setup, gap down under 5 dma is not out of the book. Peace!

Intraday high in April was at SPX 2111 ...

Looks as though 2111 is going to be busted ...