Cobra's Market View

Small gap up but within yesterday's range so chances are high that the gap will be filled and a range day today. The problem I see is EURUSD, kind like a H&S Top breakdown to me which if indeed would put pressure on commodities and therefore the broad market, so whether bulls are able to launch a solid rebound today is remained to be seen.
One more thing, even I see a little increase in visiting my blog but the visits to my Chinese report dropped sharply last night, despite AAII survey showing great reduce in bulls. Don't know what's going on here, either my report doesn't worth reading anymore or more likely I believe, there's still no panic yet...

Today's bullet points

*Resistance will be at ES 1290

*Cyclical turn at 12 EST (could be a top)

*Looking to exit my oil long position, ideally in the 102-103 crude area or 40.24-40.50 on USO. If crude starts making lower lows, I'll be out.

*Cotton could be at a cyclical low. If I can free up some cash I will likely take a position in it by the close today, if it is another down day

*Natural gas is gapping up, which is still ok, but things are getting critical. I pretty much need to see a down day today. Note that natural gas did crash last night, but it happened so fast that probably no one benefitted, so I guess it looks like the robots are buying all dips here LOL.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/presen ... actal-algo

morning cobra, just fyi for those of you using TOS, the /es contract rolled over and there is a differential of about 5 points... june contract is @ 1282 currently.

GM,
ES at 5dma resistance

Good Morning.
"Bonjour Monsieur Euro. Ca va?
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/eurusd_8358.html

Au revoir Monsieur Euro.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/eurusd_9222.html

my usual buy/sell line, Yellow area, I'll be a mad bull if trades above that.

also re: commodities. there is a vicious little circle jerk going on with brent and WTI. basically if the euro weakens, Brent goes up on weaker euro and you would think WTI would go down on stronger dollar but instead it follows Brent. See the conundrum ? I find it hilarious.

agnosia wrote:also re: commodities. there is a vicious little circle jerk going on with brent and WTI. basically if the euro weakens, Brent goes up on weaker euro and you would think WTI would go down on stronger dollar but instead it follows Brent. See the conundrum ? I find it hilarious.

Yeah, I'm getting nervous long oil and have put a stop at yesterday's close to lock in the gains...but the cycle is still bullish for crude for another day or two.

ES
One fourth left to go.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/es_8857.html

The relatively slow dropping of QQQ did not allow the touching of my 2 nested envelopes…yet!
Therefore, no buy signal here.

Cobra wrote:Small gap up but within yesterday's range so chances are high that the gap will be filled and a range day today. The problem I see is EURUSD, kind like a H&S Top breakdown to me which if indeed would put pressure on commodities and therefore the broad market, so whether bulls are able to launch a solid rebound today is remained to be seen.

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One more thing, even I see a little increase in visiting my blog but the visits to my Chinese report dropped sharply last night, despite AAII survey showing great reduce in bulls. Don't know what's going on here, either my report doesn't worth reading anymore or more likely I believe, there's still no panic yet...

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The slowdown in visitors could be as much about the summer slow time period than anything. Maybe lots of people are on vacation, so you should go through the data and adjust for seasonality. lol

The adv.NDX/decl.NDX ratio is cycling bearishly but does not suggest an oversold condition for NDX.

my reason behind 128.2, why I expect a rebound but lots of over head resistance especially near 131.47 area or 50%fib.

Copper
Risk off?
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/copper_556.html

the open.

take some profit on UNG

Natgas/UNG continues its breakout!!!!

BullBear52x wrote:take some profit on UNG

i'm raising my stops, but enjoying the ride, could have some legs

Dollar is up, this could only hurt the market in time like this.

alphahorn wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:take some profit on UNG

i'm raising my stops, but enjoying the ride, could have some legs

Buy the dip is on