Cobra's Market View

Smart money selling hard, it's case 1.) I think it's more than a warning sign!


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

Please don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2069, which has been forecasting the market well!

The stock picks for the next week are here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2071&p=224241#p224241

Carry trade check. 2 day. Either a fifth wave up to the cloud or a symetrical slide down the fork. Fraud vs grinding rebellion. The only value this market reflects is that dictated by the idiots in power, against the flunk now and avoid the rush puppet bagholders. We will see. Vote Cobra, glta.

Weekly Daily candles. Dailies ugly, Weeklies ugly .. stopped at weekly resistance with inverted hammers / gravestones.. as TLT / GLD / USD look bullish. Not sure about the USD/GLD both bullish.. possible. .but feel one will eventually win out… but maybe not with BREXIT no sure yet.

Industry % Weeklies. Huge increase in SPY Vol on Fri.. screams distribution on the daily.. weekly yes but not so much

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm
Swing indicators slowly trying to roll over.

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily

Yields .. heading lower as market heads up.. over the last 3 months.. slowly flattening

I keep wondering when the market heads down as a result of the 7-8 year presidential cycle. Anyone have a view on this?
I remember the down cycle after the Clinton era with the Nasdaq going from 5000 to those very deep lows.
Every day the market seemed to go down 200 points. And the dot coms went from $100 to 20cents.
Are we going to get something like this, this time, and if so when?

P&F long long term Charts

Business Insider ‏@businessinsider
The end of a two-term president is usually bad news for the stock market http://read.bi/1M6MJeF


Tom McClellan ‏@McClellanOsc May 3
Current market vs Pres Cycle Pattern in 2nd presidential terms. Went off track late 2015, getting back on track now.

JADEMANN- from Albert Edwards, who is famous
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-1 ... n-imminent

May I add that getting the direction is only the start, you absolutely have to get the timing as well.

During the last crash I was following a support resistance newsletter guy. I have since come to the point of view that Van Tharp is correct and you have to match your trading to the market conditions. I am sure my current day trading momentum system will be shredded by a return to 100 point days. I remember the reversals when the market was crashing, they were absolutely terrifying from both sides. It was in the aftermath that I learned what a waterfall drop was like and became a big believer in fibonacci tools, so this time I think I will be better able to handle it.

Like Ken Fisher has said in print the tops are big and round, and Cobra keeps us well informed. The scary part is after the top when we start going down too fast.

I have posted this before but it's been a long time.
Whenever I want to gauge the health of the economy I always look at lumber prices. Some look at oil - I think it's a highly manipulated market though. Lumber is still a free market for the most part. It is difficult to store long term and it is directly tied to a great leading indicator: construction.
A couple of time over the last few years, the lumber prices got thrown out of whack because of China's huge purchase binges and subsequent lack of demand but those cycle swings seem to have abated.
The trend here is clear.

One more chart before the cocktails kick in.

What concerns me is the divergence between the VIX and ES. Usually they are inverted but VIX broke above it's bear trend line on Wednesday and ES did not break it's mirror bull trend line until Friday. Furthermore VIX is already at the high side of it's 3 month range while ES is still at the high side of it's 3 month range. VIX futures are still well in contango so I don't think a break down in ES is probable at this time. Can anyone explain this unusual behavior as I don't think of put buyers (the VIX) as "smart money"?
http://www.tradingvolatility.net/p/data ... ldocs.html

Dana Lyons addresses very large changes in puts and calls over the last couple of days, which must relate to the VIX eventually. Bottom line they dumped their insurance in the last half of the week and this is not good.
http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/1457243736 ... eir-hedges

From: It is what it is department

I see strong support around mid BB, since the failure for bulls to defense the next mid term buy coupon will put all time frames back into sell, and that will not be pretty in summer month. for day trade I will be very nimble in the week to come.

BREXIT Reminder: June 23rd is the vote

The Independent has a late-breaking poll showing BREXIT is winning by a large margin. If this poll holds up, it has the potential to rile the markets with economic uncertainty. The vote is next Thursday and I think there is a good chance for markets to get quite volatile because of it. Be careful...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 75131.html

Voting is June 23 on wether Brits will exit the EU (BREXIT) or remain in the EU (BREMAIN).
Friday’s brutal drop (and the polls) suggest exit; EWU is now at potential double bottom.
Lower panel: one analyst suggested the EWU/FEZ pair trade:

Zerohedge spin (if Brexit happens, gold will soar):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-1 ... worlds-str