Cobra's Market View

Small gap down, within yesterday's range, so chances are high that the gap will be filled and a range day today. From Global ES, I see a continuation pattern so chances are little little little higher the breakout would be on the downside. In case you want to know what's the next for the next Monday, well, according to Stock Trader's Almanac, Monday of Triple Witching Week, Dow down 8 of last 13.

Good Morning Cobra! Weekend finally any big plans ?

good morning cobra

Good morning Cobra! Thanks for you views.
I will probably not get new positions early today. Selling some puts, bought yesterday, might be a good idea. There will be some shorts covering later in the day...

Good Morning.

TGIF. Perhaps it's time to plan a European vacation. EURUSD is about to break down from a H&S, the neckline of which is the 78.6% retracement of the prior high.

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/eurusd_8496.html

Anybody else shorting USO?
It will probably open under the line in the sand (39.76). Target = 39 zone (the bottom of the Keltner Channel).
I own USO Jul 40 puts, bought yesterday.
Chart update:

ES

Perhaps Bears will be able to afford that trip!

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/es_4173.html

Cobra, good morning

IWM has some support at yesterday's low in the 78.7 zone. This is the area to watch at opening, IMHO.

cougar wrote:Anybody else shorting USO?
It will probably open under the line in the sand (39.76). Target = 39 zone (the bottom of the Keltner Channel).
I own USO Jul 40 puts, bought yesterday.
Chart update:

Oil might trade down to sideways for the next session or two, but overall it's not at a place where I want to short it. That will come next week. I'll have to see where it is trading then and hope it doesn't fall hard before then. Looks like the dollar is set to rally hard so the better trades might be short gold or silver or just long dollar.

Palladium (PALL) update:

AK84 wrote:Good Morning Cobra! Weekend finally any big plans ?

lots of yard work...

Morning Cobra.

If this is the 1st leg down from 135, and we can't hold at 128.5 , seems like 2nd leg down will be perfectly measured to 125.

The market is oversold and extended, my sense it should hover around here and flirt with the lower trend line again, so that a bear flag will be formed and the oversold readng can be adjusted.

cletus wrote:

cougar wrote:Anybody else shorting USO?
It will probably open under the line in the sand (39.76). Target = 39 zone (the bottom of the Keltner Channel).
I own USO Jul 40 puts, bought yesterday.
Chart update:

Oil might trade down to sideways for the next session or two, but overall it's not at a place where I want to short it. That will come next week. I'll have to see where it is trading then and hope it doesn't fall hard before then. Looks like the dollar is set to rally hard so the better trades might be short gold or silver or just long dollar.

Right, but I am not short gold or silver yet...Looking for some opportunistic entry...Any hints?

GM,
Counter trend traders nailed it Wednesday, Trend trader seems to nail it again today. SPY 128.65 is key for me today, a trade below a bet on IHS is voided on my book.

it's right decision to take positions and shut my computer down yesterday. I like Cobra's car analogy, a move like yesterday is a high likely that you will damage your transmission gears.

doji wrote:Morning Cobra.

If this is the 1st leg down from 135, and we can't hold at 128.5 , seems like 2nd leg down will be perfectly measured to 125.

Breakdowns out of channels don't always result in continuation. Sometimes they result in reactions back into the channel, which would impied further rallying. We'll see if they can press to new lows today as the clue but so far the gap is not big enough to create that panic.

the open.

Take some profit here, it's FRIDAY....FRIDAY

cougar wrote:Anybody else shorting USO?
It will probably open under the line in the sand (39.76). Target = 39 zone (the bottom of the Keltner Channel).
I own USO Jul 40 puts, bought yesterday.
Chart update:

Hey Cougar,

Per my posts yesterday and Wednesday, I went short crude over 100.50 and doubled down at 101.50. As of this morning, it's been a very lucrative trade. Stops are in place. I will continue to short above 100.50. Dollar's turn around will wreak havoc on commodities.

Friday afternoon in downtrending market: quite common to see the last 45 minutes or so to be a mini short squeeze -- end of week short coverering. For the scalpers this is a predictable (somewhat) opportunity.