Cobra's Market View

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Wait to see if bears can make a nested double top. 49% chances?

This is how crazy the payrolls number is. Number of paid economists on the left, their estimate across the bottom.

SPX opening around resistance again 2112. Mind the morning gap.

Hilsenrath has said that the September rate hike is back on the table,

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/07 ... ay-update/

SPX pre-open.. mind the fill of the upper gaps. Job numbers last month 38k to 11K this month 287K just divide the 287K+11K = 296K/2 months = 148K May/june
Guess back to interest rate hike talk … see the wild swing in GOLD and the US dollar this am ??

The $210.85 p-bars from June 24th are being taken out this morning!
Remember the discussion about those?

Gm

Gold very nice recover...

Trade what is in front of you, that will be my takes, I am tired up all night, will have close up my shop early today.

Two headlines on articles this morning were "WHOPPING 278,000 jobs created in June" And "HUGH job numbers" I read somewhere several years ago that we needed 300,000 plus just to stay at par, I am not an economist, Can someone enlighten me?

trade <2103.5 will get me to sell. keep it simple.

INDEX days.. TLT green… mind the /GC weekly..not on this chart.. the weekly candle early this am was looking "gravestone" inverted hammer ish .. until the spike fwiw

/CL W/D/60m .. mind the breakdown retest bear flag 60m .. weekly candle looks sick

dr659 wrote:Two headlines on articles this morning were "WHOPPING 278,000 jobs created in June" " And HUGH job numbers" I read somewhere several years ago that we needed 300,000 plus just to stay at par, I am not an economist, Can someone enlighten me?

pay attention to good paying jobs are laying offs people, service and part time rise, Jobless rises but because of more worker participating in looking for work (say what?), Verizon strike workers get back to work, that also count as job gain.(say what again?) Tech company layoffs, that will be in the revise number, for now just trade on today's number. it's always like this, I am not surprise.

SPX filling upper gaps .. mmd the open AM gap

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dr659 wrote:Two headlines on articles this morning were "WHOPPING 278,000 jobs created in June" And "HUGH job numbers" I read somewhere several years ago that we needed 300,000 plus just to stay at par, I am not an economist, Can someone enlighten me?

It is the frog in the pot on a stove. The media , gamblers, medical people or choose your own ( I like the Spinal Tap amplifiers that go to 11) people focus on the change in the number and don't step back to ask the larger questions. Percentage of the working age population that is employed has been dropping for several years.

If this is truly a "blowout" number (which it isn't), this is a very muted response.
Something just doesn't add up here.

dr659 wrote:Two headlines on articles this morning were "WHOPPING 278,000 jobs created in June" And "HUGH job numbers" I read somewhere several years ago that we needed 300,000 plus just to stay at par, I am not an economist, Can someone enlighten me?

look to the huge May number revised down 38K to 11k .. ignore the individual data.. it's all manipulated.. Remember 11 yrs of GDP data is being revised..https://mishtalk.com/2016/06/16/us-gdp- ... l-they-be/ so can you really trust the numbers?
And now China.. is changing it's way of calculating GDP.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calen ... yrolls-227

NYSE Adv/Dec nearly 6:1
Naz advancers >2000

Bears beware