10/06/2016 Live Update

[Cobra]

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my guess is up. NFP tomorrow, so likely boring again today anyway.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/10 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

SPX mind yesterday's gap. opening 2155ish

[fehro]

DXY nears major downtrend.. "could" be explosive up… mind your oil/golds tomorrow / over the weekend!

[uempel]

Ellipses on daily and shorter term charts too are showing a time signal for SPX. So far no big move ...

[Trades with cats]

Goldman must be frozen out of future offerings by Musk, they just downgraded Tesla.

[fehro]

SPX near support… gap still open.. going to tease us again? VIX kinda near downtrend…

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:05 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/10 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

the rebound probably would be sold.

[fehro]

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results Neutal is the name of the game… no extreme bears/bulls to contrarian trade from Election levitation

[Al_Dente]

note TWTR

[fehro]

pretty bear flag that SPX 5m.. VIX support-ish holding-ish 20d SPX 2151.61 .. it goes with LOD next level 2140ish 20w SMA

[QED]

If they cannot force the market any lower than this, then they will have to try the other direction!

[Trades with cats]

If they cannot force the market any lower than this, then they will have to try the other direction!

No volume no buybacks no volatility in the bond markets forcing risk parity funds to cut or add positions. Oil market is down to retail trying to move it higher while the pro's wait to see the storm damage.

[Mr. BachNut]

BachNut posting early this week.
I'll be out all day tomorrow... playing golf...
By rule, the market moves big when I am unavailable.
So, tomorrow is likely to be a mover.

The NYMO cycle is down.
The last up cycle was ever so brief.
Price has held up remarkably well in spite of NYMO declining or negative for much of the time since July.
This is probably bullish except that the last two notable declines (September and June) had a trap door quality about them.
So, the market is holding up well, but we could wake up one morning and find out differently. Not a prediction...

Again, another week without target hits. Probably won't be the case next week.
We're in a bit of a triangle around the middle keltner band here. So, look for resolution.

I added another lower possible down target (closing the 2036 gap) to the chart.
It is below the 200 day MA so I don't think too much of it.
However, we are accumulating more potential supply above the August low.
The September drop did not trigger a dramatic liquidation or capitulation.
All those folks who held through the September drop are probably loose in the socket now.
A break below the September low could release a lot of supply. So, my mind is open to possible deep targets.
It being October and all.

I am also open minded about heading up from here.
An interesting scenario for me would be a pop higher to hit my first up target while sporting a negative NYMO divergence.

I am short small at the moment with a breakeven stop.
I'll probably get picked off tomorrow while the train leaves the station one way or another...

[Trades with cats]

While we wait I am sure most people know that all of us with MBA's, no matter from how humble a school, can prove anything with a spread sheet given enough variables. Not a fan of Tesla financials, as I see it as a gigantic ponzi, but then I see most of the tech darlings the same way. My real point is this Goldman analysis is absolutely ridiculous. Spread sheet is at the bottom of the article. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-0 ... ades-tesla

[QED]

While we wait I am sure most people know that all of us with MBA's, no matter from how humble a school, can prove anything with a spread sheet given enough variables. Not a fan of Tesla financials, as I see it as a gigantic ponzi, but then I see most of the tech darlings the same way. My real point is this Goldman analysis is absolutely ridiculous. Spread sheet is at the bottom of the article. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-0 ... ades-tesla

Two points:

1. GS obviously wants to accumulate.

2. Musk loves to squeeze the shorts!

[Al_Dente]

Bored?
Here’s an interesting timing signal for LONG TERM portfolios
using the outperformance of hi-beta stocks as a signal for long spy
and conversely using long bonds when the low-betas outperform
http://imarketsignals.com/2016/profitab ... he-sp-500/

[fehro]

SPX gap filled 20d 2151.6 slips under.. 20w 2140ish

[Al_Dente]

Hurricane Matthew Strengthens As Florida Governor Warns: "Evacuate Now. This Is Going To Kill People"
[landfall late tonight]