Cobra's Market View

Smart money big short so it's case 1.), pullback is due?


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

Our weekly sentiment poll is here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2216

Summary of the week's stock picks:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2208&p=231158#p231158

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming still shows we're in range, no clear direction.

Friday just 27.58% of SPX stocks were above their 50dma
In other words, if you invited 500 people to the party, only 138 showed up
It would be nice to get a positive divergence on a lower low, but we are seldom that lucky…
http://www.indexindicators.com/charts/s ... -blue-x-x/
edit: note: that page updates same-day, while our symbol $SPXA50R is late EOD (end-of-day quote only)

Three white soldiers, cup/handle fails. 2 day chart.Pullback perhaps indeed.

The stock picks for the next week are here:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2218

Early Warning signal?
Well, at the very least, this should be on WATCH
THIS IS A MONTHLY CHART
PRE CRASH: Recall that the market topped October 2007.
See in June/July of 2007, an ominous cross occurred when the unemployment rate moved above the 10/12 MONTHLY moving average (red circle), which in retrospect can be seen as a precursor signal to the crash, albeit a few months early.
This month is the first time since then that the same 10/12ma was breached on the MONTHLY.
(In fairness, it popped up there in 2010 – pink arrow – for a minute, and it could pop back down again this time).
What could be more important than (un)employment?
Note that the $$UNEMPRATE quote is dated as of Sept 1, the latest info we have here
What this means is that your STOPS on your medium and long term portfolios must be HONORED. Don’t dick around here.
[Post if you have better charts or better data]

Weekly /Daily candles… Index wise both look weak, and toppy.. DXY USdollar looks strong.

Industry % Weekly

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm
As per last week's comment of swing slipping to the sell side.. weakness continues.

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily
Looking weak again

Yields

Yields V2.0 IRX 13-week Treasuries.. near multi year highs

Disclaimer: not a subject matter expert.

Are U.S. unemployment rates directly comparable over the years?

There are people like David Stockman who have raised concerns about the Birth-Death model causing distortions and disconnects
between various BLS estimates (including unemployment rate) vs reality.

(I vaguely remember an example in the news: 240,000 job growth estimate was made up of 180,000 estimate from Birth-Death model
and 60,000 real count)

WDIK

Al_Dente wrote:Early Warning signal?
Well, at the very least, this should be on WATCH
THIS IS A MONTHLY CHART
PRE CRASH: Recall that the market topped October 2007.
See in June/July of 2007, an ominous cross occurred when the unemployment rate moved above the 10/12 MONTHLY moving average (red circle), which in retrospect can be seen as a precursor signal to the crash, albeit a few months early.
This month is the first time since then that the same 10/12ma was breached on the MONTHLY.
(In fairness, it popped up there in 2010 – pink arrow – for a minute, and it could pop back down again this time).
What could be more important than (un)employment?
Note that the $$UNEMPRATE quote is dated as of Sept 1, the latest info we have here
What this means is that your STOPS on your medium and long term portfolios must be HONORED. Don’t dick around here.
[Post if you have better charts or better data]

1014unemployment.png.png

My opinion only.

From it is what it is department, The fearful and confusing market.

intraday level is clear not be overly bullish.

10 year yield, a bet that rate will move up is strong, in the past it turns out to be only speculation to buy time, well, will it be raised ever remain in the guess work. for the Fed dependent market raising rate this time will no be good because the debt level is so high on all front, to say raise rate will profit the bank like the usual I think it will have the different effect this time, I heard auto loan is in a shaking ground right now. anyhow, I will stick to the TA side of things, only price pays.King green back, besides extremely overbought, now we got bearish stick sandwich to look into. Hmm....Peace!

I show this chart many times in the past, here is the update on a daily trend following 101 setup.

Looking for a retest Monday, 2125ish area then a final lower high before the big one.