Cobra's Market View

The institution buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows more accumulation than distribution this week. However the bullish crossover wasn't decisive so it means range market.

please don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2464

No stock picks this week. Here's the latest strong stocks count. don't forget we're at all time high.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2466&p=240489#p240489

"...There Are Now More Indexes Than Stocks"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-1 ... xes-stocks

Back in 1986 the Stock Trader's Almanac discovered the position switching strategy that corresponds with the "Sell in May and go away" strategy that has been around for decades.

If you invested $10,000 in the Dow in 1950 and never touched it you would have a gain of $860,000 today.

However, if you used the best six months switching strategy with a MACD entry point, you would have generated $2,496,586 in profits.

I went shopping for some retail stocks to short (bear call spreads) and was surprised to see that many of the worst consumer cyclicals have "Buy" ratings by Ned Davis. And he has given them Buy ratings for some time. For example, Guess (GES) - it has been in a steady decline for 6 years, losing 80 %. ! haven't yet read his reports. This is interesting - anyone here know what's going on?

This is perplexing to me: The highs on the SPX
Over this long bull run, why was SPX able to notch 100 and more new highs here and there
And yet, over the past two years, she’s been hard pressed to get more than 50 new highs
The answer is not that the number of issues has changed, as the SPX has consistently had +/- 500 issues throughout
What is the answer? Anyone?
[WEEKLY chart]

Al_Dente wrote:This is perplexing to me: The highs on the SPX
Over this long bull run, why was SPX able to notch 100 and more new highs here and there
And yet, over the past two years, she’s been hard pressed to get more than 50 new highs
The answer is not that the number of issues has changed, as the SPX has consistently had +/- 500 issues throughout
What is the answer? Anyone?
[WEEKLY chart]

514spx highs.png.png

Looks to have changed with the end of QE

Al_Dente wrote:This is perplexing to me: The highs on the SPX
Over this long bull run, why was SPX able to notch 100 and more new highs here and there
And yet, over the past two years, she’s been hard pressed to get more than 50 new highs
The answer is not that the number of issues has changed, as the SPX has consistently had +/- 500 issues throughout
What is the answer? Anyone?
[WEEKLY chart]

514spx highs.png.png

I think fewer stocks are participating in the $SPX rally.

To visualize this better, put $SPXA200R on your weekly chart as a “Price” lower indicator and the negative divergence is very apparent.

It probably also has something to do with the growth of ETF’s over that same period which effectively pimp the “best” stocks in the $SPX and marginalize the rest.
Everyone wants to follow the winners …

Edit: Additionally, look at the price ratio of XLE:SPY over that same period on your weekly chart. The energy sector use to be a major component of $SPX, and now it is down to a little over 6%. Its importance to the economy has not changed that dramatically over that same period of time, thus the energy sector is now acting as a headwind on the economy (and $SPX) instead of a tailwind.

Note to everyone: If you want to be bullish in this market at these levels right now,
please make sure that you at least have a "Plan B" ...