Cobra, What is the exact target of the H&S pattern on SPY, you mentioned yearlier Nov 2010 low which is around 117.5 but it seems like the target is lower?
STC wrote:Cobra, What is the exact target of the H&S pattern on SPY, you mentioned yearlier Nov 2010 low which is around 117.5 but it seems like the target is lower?
most technical analysis texts tell you that measuring from head to neckline and applying to the break of the neckline is the minimum target for the head and shoulders.
STC wrote:Cobra, What is the exact target of the H&S pattern on SPY, you mentioned yearlier Nov 2010 low which is around 117.5 but it seems like the target is lower?
see tinted area. I know I cannot simply use tinted area to do the measure on log chart, but should be close enough. H&S Top has only 55% chances to reach the text book target, so normally, I won't expect it to reach the target, the Nov 2010 lows should be it.
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SPX: I am sticking to my previously published EW count. Although (according to bona fide EW technicians) my count is “simplistic”, it seems to work. Going down on w3 of W3 is supposed to be very bearish.
Harmonic extensions = targets for w3 (yellow) of W3 (purple).
STC wrote:Cobra, What is the exact target of the H&S pattern on SPY, you mentioned yearlier Nov 2010 low which is around 117.5 but it seems like the target is lower?
see tinted area. I know I cannot simply use tinted area to do the measure on log chart, but should be close enough. H&S Top has only 55% chances to reach the text book target, so normally, I won't expect it to reach the target, the Nov 2010 lows should be it.
Well we're less than 1 SPY point from the November lows now.
following the 2007 template....possible scenario..
in 2007 the august selloff ended at the 2006 oct close level ( most big funds have their performance and portfolios number based on october close ) if that holds true, we are RIGHT now at the oct 2010 close level and funds are break even on their oct to oct year end...any fall from here 1180 ish...and they go negative yr over yr and things get bad...BUT they MAY be motivated ( probably next week tho ) to get things rolling up so they are not flat...
but like Cobra says, its a feeling I have based on the greed of fund managers to perform and NOT in the charts..( even tho we are crazy maximum oversold now on ALL indicators ) trade what you SEE not feel...but interesting, we shall see how this plays out
biggest concern is they havent shot the generals yet...AAPL AMZN GOOG CRM CMG ISRG they all need to be shot before a true bottom can be in
ok this is getting SCARY!!! EVERYONE LOOKING FOR A BOUNCE HERE...BUT crashes come from these kind of set ups...and from oversold levels NOT at highs...and its a summer friday...wow....
we are now at 2010 oct closing level for funds, and almost at the HS pattern Cobra talked about as a target...1175 area 1180 area..we BETTER bouce here
no good, this could mean there's at least one more try on the downside today after a rebound if any. what is wrong with this market?
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what do you think of DOW theory, worthless for a day trader as it discounts minor trends, however, for intermediate time frame/401k money I believe there was a DT sell signal yesterday and it follows the DT sell rules rather than a basic non-confirmation
what do you think
sorry if this posts twice, still getting used to the forum
look at the BDI baltic dry index that cobra shows on page 4 of his stockcharts
and then you can see there is no underlying reason for the bull market since march 2009 other than the printing of money and the actions of the plunge protection team
so this has all been a house of cards
and no house of cards can stand forever.....so days like this have just been a matter of time
all that money printing has done very little to get the real economy going
all it has done has boosted financial assets....which has saved us for a while.....but in the end will make things much worse