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08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:03 am
by Cobra
Although within the Friday's range, but simply the down gap is too large, so not sure if the gap will be filled or not (somehow I myself don't feel today'd be ugly day, let's see). Global ES doesn't look good, the Friday's low had been tested 4 times, luckily still holds, the questions, will it hold the 5th test? NORMALLY IT WON'T.
Here are some statistics from sentimentrader about when similar things happened (hmm, that explains why I don't feel ugly day):
For what it's worth, there have been 9 other times in their 30-year history that the S&P futures dropped 5% or more in a week, slumping to at least a six-month low, then gapped down -2% or more on the open.
8 of those 9 days closed the day higher, and were also higher 3 days later. The average return from open to close was a whopping +3.1%, with the loser being -2.2% (from October 6, 2008).
Here are the dates, along with the day's return from open to close:
9/21/01: +3.5%
6/26/02: +2.4%
7/24/02: +8.5%
1/22/08: +3.3%
1/23/08: +5.4%
9/16/08: +4.1%
10/6/08: -2.2%
10/8/08: +0.3%
10/10/08: +2.3%
Re: 08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:04 am
by Out of Bounds
Covered shorts in premarket. Guys, we are going to have a counter-rally sooner or later. Neutral, waiting to reshort any pop.
Re: 08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:08 am
by keesa
Today is going to be tough: hard to balance trade on TA or trade on emotion
Re: 08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:09 am
by 99er
Good Morning.
So honey...are you still working on our vacation plans?
EURUSD
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/eurusd_08.html
You betcha!
Re: 08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:11 am
by 99er
Re: 08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:20 am
by 99er
Re: 08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:26 am
by agnosia
the patient looks sick.. he needs another dose of drugs ( ie. liquidity from ben ) or might go into further withdrawals. pump him up ben!
Re: 08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:29 am
by StrikePrice
I'm back. What a week I missed. You guys must have been having a great time as well.
Re: 08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:31 am
by Cobra
the open.
Re: 08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:32 am
by pidge66
agnosia wrote:the patient looks sick.. he needs another dose of drugs ( ie. liquidity from ben ) or might go into further withdrawals. pump him up ben!
For those interested. New low was made on SI leading indicator last week, meaning price still lower 10 week down the road.
http://wp.me/p1jbrN-bB
Re: 08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:34 am
by Cobra
if you look at the Global ES, bigger picture, it certainly doesn't look good, look like a continuation pattern in the forming, although I find it's hard to believe the market can drop this large this fast.
Re: 08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:45 am
by cougar
Some puts selling here! Makes sense, at this VIX value..
Re: 08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:50 am
by agnosia
holy crap .. bac is trading at 7.50. these market swings are too volatile and choppy for my trading style so i am sitting out for now.
Re: 08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:54 am
by 99er
Oh honey...sweet dear honey...
SPX
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/spx_08.html
Will you buy me a Ferrari?
Re: 08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:00 am
by silicon_beaver
good morning.
loaded rare earth this time. I will see.
Re: 08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:02 am
by Cobra
still think the breakout will be on the downside eventually. There're some chances that market may oscillate in the current range before breakdown, in the case then the next down leg would be huge.
Re: 08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:02 am
by EvilTrader
BUYING HERE, with stops just below the lows.
Good risk/reward for a swing.
Re: 08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:05 am
by Anaconda
Well....maybe a 599-GTB to keep things within reason?
Re: 08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:10 am
by fuddleduddle
I think there is more bloodletting by the end of the close, and possibly right down to the wire with the Jackson Hole speech (anyone know what time that would be?).
S&P just downgraded the clearing houses. As ZH reported yesterday, the munis are quite possibly next (and soon). The rebound will be short lived and the next down leg as Cobra said will be huge.
Re: 08/08/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:13 am
by STC
Cobra wrote:still think the breakout will be on the downside eventually. There're some chances that market may oscillate in the current range before breakdown, in the case then the next down leg would be huge.
I don't think so. As long as the market can hold the Friday low, it has a chance to break to the up side. Bull flag is on SPY 10 min charts and on 5 min chart as well. I would not call for a move down unless we break Friday low.