Cobra's Market View

SPY Intraday double bottom or Baby Janet bottom?

Junior Buffett wrote:I think market will shoot higher later in the day or tomorrow...doesn't look good for BEARS...

some bull traps, and breakdowns.. not looking too healthy for the bulls.. fwiw

http://www.markets.fallondpicks.com/201 ... -trap.html

NY advancing stocks = 1.1 x declining stocks
NY advancing volume = 1.0 x declining volume

Both were more than 5x on the open

Al_Dente wrote:10yr Yield TNX is holding well above the neckline of her inverse H&S
Eventual target is approximately 29.40 (2.94% yield)
Daily chart

The attachment 131tnx.png.png is no longer available

Yields charts… weeklies ---- umm IRX? 13 week Treasuries key time nearing key trend lines

Typically, a significant jump in volatility requires a relatively deep or sharp decline in stocks. However, the recent stock market climate has been so benign that yesterday’s relatively mild losses seemed to have really spooked volatility traders.One example can be seen in the short-term, i.e., 9-day, S&P 500 Volatility Index, aka, the VXST, which jumped 42.5% yesterday. That is the 23rd biggest jump in the index since its inception in 2011. The odd thing is that the S&P 500 (SPX) was down “just” 2/3 of a percent.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... -overboard

fehro- lots of ink spilled about the repressed volatility and repressed rates feeds on itself with more and more bets placed. Apparently it is all relative so what counts is the recent past. Reminds me of Professor Minski and his work on the interest rates. Last I saw they think a 3% sell off would trigger a major risk parity fund event.

Trades with cats wrote:fehro- lots of ink spilled about the repressed volatility and repressed rates feeds on itself with more and more bets placed. Apparently it is all relative so what counts is the recent past. Reminds me of Professor Minski and his work on the interest rates. Last I saw they think a 3% sell off would trigger a major risk parity fund event.

yup, some very unusual actions across yields, VIXes, Index deviations… be so very careful.. .something BIG is around the corner.. when not sure, depth…. deep…. very deep to extreme deep

Outgoing and incoming chairs are both cut from the same repress the market we know better cloth. After a full decade of extraordinary emergency measures I think they are panicking over the sudden move in the bond market and may tone down the change in wording from what is expected. IF so then back to ES 2840 and on up to 2845.50 or so. If they do what is expected and confirm the March rate hike I am looking at yesterday's low to be followed overnight giving us a gap down open and fulfilling the Trader's Almanac stats.

With most of their owners going on record that we are seeing at least a short term blow off top (if not the top) they have to be figuring what the next move will be if they don't want to be blamed by a very very vocal President for wrecking the economy.

earnings reports after the close today:
T, EBAY, FB, MSFT, QCOM, PYPL

fehro wrote:

Trades with cats wrote:fehro- lots of ink spilled about the repressed volatility and repressed rates feeds on itself with more and more bets placed. Apparently it is all relative so what counts is the recent past. Reminds me of Professor Minski and his work on the interest rates. Last I saw they think a 3% sell off would trigger a major risk parity fund event.

yup, some very unusual actions across yields, VIXes, Index deviations… be so very careful.. .something BIG is around the corner.. when not sure, depth…. deep…. very deep to extreme deep

fwiw.. fun with Fib numbers.. "IF" we were to make it to 2999.76 SPX .. 61.8% retrace would be 2007/2001 highs.. 1553 worse case, 38.2% retrace = the 2yr zone 2014/15 highs 2109ish.. and and 50% retrace =1850 .. all fwiw

It’s all about BA (response to this morning’s earnings report)
It’s up +17.5 points
Boeing alone represents about +117 points of the dow advance today
(while the AD is anemic)

AMZN
ATH
up +29 points, as it solves all our healthcare problems
Good thing it's not in the dow. If it were, the price-weighted dow would be up an additional 200 points... I'm NOT joking

Healthcare slammed on the Bezos/Buffett/JPM news yesterday
Last night’s threats to do something about pharma prices didn’t help healthcare either
38.2 to 50% fib retracement is likely… maybe more…
daily

show time.

FED rates unchanged, unanimous, no surprise
Economy to warrant further rate hikes
Inflation shoud rise this year, and stabilize around 2%

Courtesy of John Kicklighter, Daily FX

Today's FOMC rate decision is not centered on whether the Fed hikes or not. The market is pretty clear on no change.

Yet the market is also confident of a hike on March 21 (93%). And the Fed forecast through December 2018 is rising rapidly: chance of 2 hikes is 91%, 3 hikes is 62%, and 4 hikes is 25%.

Market is trying hard to hold the line... fingertips greasy.. palms sweaty.....