Cobra's Market View

fehro wrote:come to papa… 50d 2720ish .. almost there.. 5 points look for a stall SPX

ding ding

Aw nuts I had the time wrong on Evans speech, it just hit the wires. He is predicting full employment plus by 2020.

i am seeing BIG bid/ask spreads (bigger than usual) on leveraged ETFs like TNA
and stockcharts quotes are lagging a bit

1st test of ema20 in a long time so might be some buyers around here.

fehro wrote:

fehro wrote:come to papa… 50d 2720ish .. almost there.. 5 points look for a stall SPX

ding ding

nibble short.. worse case.. SPX 200d by the weekend.. as debt "talks" dominate … SPX 200d 2533

Bam! There it is, the Powell Fed's put. Evans said balance runoff can be changed if necessary. That is a long way from Laurel Brainard last fall saying it was on autopilot.

U.S. crude output hits a record high of 10.25 million bpd, surpassing both the monthly high set in Nov 1970, and Saudi Arabia's latest production.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02- ... ecord-high

/CL weekly long long term … 60.50 goes on the weekly grey line horiz start to look for $48-45 by summer .. "IF" DXY dollar keeps pushing up.. look to next month's Italian Elections, and any trouble with Merkel's German gov't .. the USdollar will explode up

Trades with cats wrote:Bam! There it is, the Powell Fed's put. Evans said balance runoff can be changed if necessary....

YESTERDAY:
HERE’S MORE ON THE FED UNWIND (and the definitions of “roll over” and “roll off”)
Of the $27 billion in Treasuries that matured Monday, the Fed “rolled over” $16 billion (replaced them by reinvesting the proceeds) and allowed $11 billion to “roll off” (got paid for them and did not reinvest in other treasurys).
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02- ... es-sharply

bearish butterfly...another caution spot.

Al_Dente wrote:NY advancing stocks = 2.4 x declining stocks
NY advancing volume = 3.0 x declining volume

NY advancing stocks = 2.1 x declining stocks
NY advancing volume = 1.8 x declining volume

Cobra - Do you believe there needs to be OML to fulfill the structure?

Moments ago S&P (the rating agency) downgraded WFC, the largest US mortgage lender from A to A-, due to "Prolonged Regulatory And Governance Issues" with a Stable Outlook.
[Are they up to their old tricks? Downgrading way after the fact?]

...............

brokebybernacke2 wrote:bearish butterfly...another caution spot.

bear patterns are working of late:) hmmm

like to see retest of highs today , and failure there again could give bigger bears hope...

Upside range expansion is over for now, back inside both yesterday and last nights trading range.

BofA is calling the collapse in short-volatility positioning: “A Minsky Moment”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment

I call it one cockroach

Bank stocks should be in trouble here. Wells with the regulators and a second reason for them is fee income. As the largest mortgage loan originator they are bound to be hurting as Powell's Fed continues to destroy affordability by moving rates up. Assuming everybody saw that Deutsche Bank is a big concern because 10% of their stock is owned by the Chinese conglomerate that will be the largest bankruptcy in that countries history (if Xi Jinping does what he promised on reform).

To "1der"
THANKS

Doesn't want to trade inside yesterday's range, so far.