Cobra's Market View

all I am asking is 117 15 cents apart second times that Bulls tested daily mid 20BB, do or die, I am betting on the down side until 120 is taking out, be nimble on the evil side until uncle Ben can move us higher.

well, as I said, H&S RARELY works, I'll forget about this pattern for awhile.

Some guy told me that technical patterns such as H&S don't work on indices, only on individual stocks.

Petsamo wrote:Some guy told me that technical patterns such as H&S don't work on indices, only on individual stocks.

Trading reversal pattern is always dangerous because it's against the trend!

Looks like risk adverse trades were back on today $GLD and $TLT. Will $GLD make another run at its highs?

http://rocstocktrader.webs.com/

Petsamo wrote:Some guy told me that technical patterns such as H&S don't work on indices, only on individual stocks.

but it should apply to any chart. It's nonsense some patterns work for stocks but don't work for indices.

Cobra wrote:

jaaawf wrote:Tough week news wise for TA. We had Buffett and BAC, Earthquake, Jackson Hole Speech, Hurricane. That's an awful lot and I am probably forgetting something. You've navigated it well this week Cobra...thanks!

thanks. glad someone paid attention that indeed TA works. News doesn't matter. The reason I'm saying this is someone in my Chinese forum are complaining again that TA doesn't work. Well, everyone knows I'm purely TA and it does work. Tradings on the other hand is different because besides TA, there's a more difficult part which is EMOTION. I still cannot put my emotion away and that's why I'm still poor.

Me too. My emotion didn't get me in the Bull run today and that was the trade of the day. I know a lot of good traders got in and I'm really glad for you.
My philosophy is always live to trade another day...

Corba, do not cut your long position, i believe it will be out of water probably late next week or early next next week, when we get to the end of triangle. i guess the direction is down-up-down to squeeze both short and long first, before the 2nd leg.

Cobra wrote:back testing the neck line, but I won't hope much for bears, yes, that's right, bears. H&S RARELY works, so I'm not surprised a strong rebound till the close especially I closed all my day longs because I was so disappointed. The market usually turns when I close all, just to make me more upset.

Cobra, I share your frustration with pattern failures!

On the other hand, I know that month end window dressing is a powerful force over the last 5 trading days of almost all months and for the first 3 days of the new month. And that some of the most successful traders only enter new positions, and are obviously long, during that time frame.

I don't know the exact percentage of success with that strategy, only that it's positive because that's how institutional managers move their money.

Let's see if it works this month end.

i don't know what you other guys do, but i made 34 trades today.
17 round trips, trading ES
17 wins, 0 losses
5.5 points gained

Cobra..Thanks for the week..See you all mon.All of you in the path of the Hurricane.Good luck if your riding it out.

well, guess that's for today, thank you guys, I'll see you the next Monday. Monday is more likely up but Tuesday is more likely down according to seasonality, by the way.

they have 48587 open 118 call vs 8836 puts most likely they will close right on 118.01

amour wrote:Corba, do not cut your long position, i believe it will be out of water probably late next week or early next next week, when we get to the end of triangle. i guess the direction is down-up-down to squeeze both short and long first, before the 2nd leg.

I said my day long which had descent profit.

the long for short-term model, of course no cut, strictly follow the rule.

StrikePrice wrote:

Cobra wrote:

jaaawf wrote:Tough week news wise for TA. We had Buffett and BAC, Earthquake, Jackson Hole Speech, Hurricane. That's an awful lot and I am probably forgetting something. You've navigated it well this week Cobra...thanks!

thanks. glad someone paid attention that indeed TA works. News doesn't matter. The reason I'm saying this is someone in my Chinese forum are complaining again that TA doesn't work. Well, everyone knows I'm purely TA and it does work. Tradings on the other hand is different because besides TA, there's a more difficult part which is EMOTION. I still cannot put my emotion away and that's why I'm still poor.

Me too. My emotion didn't get me in the Bull run today and that was the trade of the day. I know a lot of good traders got in and I'm really glad for you.
My philosophy is always live to trade another day...

only 2% of posters say they lost money, so trading should not be that complicated. everyone seems to be on the right side all the times.

fuddleduddle wrote:All in all, headfake week galore. You've navigated this week very well, Captain Cobra.

Says it all! Total headfake. A rocket scientist couldn't figure out direction this week -- back and forth. Cobra did awesome job with big mess big boys are putting us through. Cobra, definitely don't be hard on yourself. I think you are still right that we are going to test the 8/9 low's ... and that prediction is the one that counts -- not this daily up/down crap.

Stocks I follow did well in terms of price today but volume levels did not follow.

http://rocstocktrader.webs.com/

Cobra wrote:well, as I said, H&S RARELY works, I'll forget about this pattern for awhile.

too many are watching h&s pattern and HFTs take notice

failed h&s pattern usually runs hard, either upside or downside

TA doesn't work

i use TA on every trade, the exact types of TA that i use are proprietary,
but you should be able to figure out some of it after seeing my charts...

TA works great if you are not too greedy!!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks Cobra for all your work and sacrifice, we appreciate it. And nice call on today's bottom. Have a good weekend.