Cobra's Market View

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bias is up. the pullback should be bought if any.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/03 ... ay-update/

n korea pump n dump, I don't buy it, 50ma sp around 2736, don't feel it will get thru that ez...

SPX /RUT into 50d SMAs.. bonds pushing up.. careful for outside reversal/doji

/CL indice fut push overnight.. /CL slips under *50d SMA sharp reversal

Ah. Those classic StockCharts multi-thumbnails paint a quick panavision of the markets. I use a similar one for the various sector ETFs.

We can note at once that if TNX were an index ETF, it would be the strongest on the simplest metric of all-- distance of 20day MA above the 50day.

Any buy-strength/sell weakness strategy has to be looking at the 118 level on TLT and thinking, it sure isn't escaping that level back into the 120s.

Is it basing or flagging? Only such indicators as ADX and %b and CMF and ForceIndex can provide clues as to which way the current tug of war is leaning...

XLF, KRE gap fill

morning hourly filled black.

jan factory orders down -1.4%
(consensus was -1.3%)

$DJUSST has to be the closest thing to a binary Las Vegas bet type indicator going right now. Just like before the historic Brexit vote, when the pound became a pure sentiment indicator of investor expectations-in-the moment, the U.S. steel index has got to be purest instrument out there for a 'referendum' (nearterm) on whether Tariffs as widely discussed will be drafted and installed.

It has been hovering for a dozen days btw 300 and 310, and was down about 1/2 of 1% when last I looked.

From the morning briefing, which was short today.
ES Point of Control since the sell-off is 2715 so we are trading in the thick of it. Up to 2740, for a range day, otherwise 2750. Down to 2715 for a range day, if tariff news is bad on down to 2706.
Overnight European traders were pretty evenly distributed in their buying through the range, the price histogram looked like a ragged edged square.

So what is up with Goldman posting Elliot Wave doom porn at Zero hedge last night?

On a daily timeframe, just about every sector I track is on a stochastic BUY signal, and not near an overbought level. And the VIX has been holding for a couple of days below 20.

Perhaps this adds up to a "bear beware" warning over the next few days?

Happy Birthday Bull Market
9 years old
March 6, 2009

yesterday the same time, it started to up up up, today, the same buy program started at the same time?

Al_Dente wrote:Happy Birthday Bull Market 9 years old March 6, 2009

I recall the day, a huge key-reversal day (actually a 36 hour stretch, including futures).

By coincidence my brother's birthday is the 6th, and I wrote to him in a birthday email that he might be "getting a new baby bull for his birthday". I manage a trust for the both of us.

March 2009 was when "green shoots" were everywhere, and people became nauseous from how overused the term became-- but they were there, along with many positive divergences, around those final price lows.

Last night Alastair Williamson put up this comparo on twitter of oil to the S&P for yesterday. This version was updated about an hour ago by him. Oil not moving yet on the FINVIZ free 5 minute futures charts.

TLT multiple failures past couple days around the 20day MA. Today it held 118 at the low, but it's still at about the same level it was in early February. Looking like a bear flag, maybe. Meanwhile, $DJUSST is down about 1% on the day, and IWM is suddenly collapsing.

Got seriously close to that ES 2715 that time. Wish I was quick enough to play the 30 second charts on these outside to the mean days!

There goes 2715. ES 2706 next up.