Cobra's Market View

Shaishen wrote:

te_fern wrote:This type of day is hard for me to trade. Feel like I missed the entry point.....

I think it's hard for every intraday trader. Small dip at the open and straight up. Where to hop on?

only possible entry point - hindsight - was at the "zipper" formation a touch above day mid at around 10:25 to 10:30 ET (Bar 11 and 12 in Dr Brooks terms) at ~2766.5 ES June. Tick was trending down at that time ..

.

Thanks. Yes, once it pulled back slightly and then broke the open and Cobra gave the up day report, then I should have jumped in. As you said, I like bigger pullbacks first....

Clipper Data has posted some samples of what they do today on Twitter.

Pretzel Charts calling SPX 2790 the line in the sand.
But it is a Friday before a triple witch and the big boys must still be on the hook for insurance options bought by the funds. I am a skeptic that anything in this reduced volume market isn't being influenced by the big trading houses until a week from Monday.

Trades with cats wrote:Pretzel Charts calling SPX 2790 the line in the sand.
But it is a Friday before a triple witch and the big boys must still be on the hook for insurance options bought by the funds. I am a skeptic that anything in this reduced volume market isn't being influenced by the big trading houses until a week from Monday.

cup handle target met 2770. felt 2730 was line in sand, bull it shall continue a bit more. eventually to meander into a bear flag where new highs will suck in the remainder of those left behind and it will be time to sell in my opinion...buffett is mostly cash, he always a bit early...

Lael Branard FOMC and San Fran Fed was, according to the media, the front runner to be new Fed Chair in a Clinton Presidency. She made a major policy speech this week, which is what the FOMC has used her for in the past. Chair makes a speech and then Branard provides detail and nuance in a follow up speech poorly covered by mainstream media.

She has gone from dove to hawk. She represents the consensus opinion of the Fed. Any hope of only 3 hikes is dead, the better question is will they do five. This is it for real estate and at some point in the next several quarters boards of directors are going to reduce or end new borrowing for buybacks.

Johnny 5 and friends may be acting like today's lack of wage increases will slow the Fed but that is not the clear reality. Besides it is too soon for Wall Street to experience that a ha moment that will lead to the selling panic in my worthless opinion.

NEWS:
Lloyd Blankfein, the son of a Brooklyn postal worker and CEO of Goldman Sachs, will step down, probably by the end of the year, concluding his 36-year Goldman career.
RUMORS:
He’s probably sick again
Timing of Gary Cohn’s WH exit is now a bit more suspicious

Here’s more on how and why FLOW DATA is never a good timing tool.
“two words”
IMHO: Swapping equity for debt (aka: stock buybacks) isn’t usually a good idea, because when the stuff hits the fan, you’ll have a droopy stock price, and too much debt
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03- ... -sp-jumped

QQQ now an ascending triangle
[edit: add: so is SMH]
http://thepatternsite.com/at.html

more ATH
MSFT
AMZN
INTC
SMH

Week in review from zerohedge
"Confirming that retail investors were spooked by trade war fears, U.S. small caps "were sheltered from the storm" and enjoyed a tiny $0.03 billion in inflows, offset by $10.1 billion in large-cap outflows."

Double credit to Pasta Boss for calling small caps up and naming the reason!

Also said that S&P is up on buybacks offsetting large outflows by investors.
Said that year to date inflows into tech have been very large. (insert giff of cartoon characters blowing up a giant balloon).

What they didn't say is buybacks have to happen before the 30 day quiet period prior to earnings. Primary objective of buybacks is to maximize the insiders stock incentive pay for hitting targets. So the incentives are not the same as for speculators or investors which explains why corporations were deploying borrowed money when professional management companies (and Uncle Warren) were raising cash. We know this won't end well because they did a similar version of this game prior to 1929 and afterwards Congress outlawed the practice. It was Clinton or Bush who opened the door back up. After all its different this time!

maybe finally a pullback to test ema20 here.

Trades with cats wrote: Primary objective of buybacks is to maximize the insiders stock incentive pay for hitting targets. So the incentives are not the same as for speculators or investors which explains why corporations were deploying borrowed money when professional management companies (and Uncle Warren) were raising cash. We know this won't end well because they did a similar version of this game prior to 1929 and afterwards Congress outlawed the practice. It was Clinton or Bush who opened the door back up. After all its different this time!

thanks boss, that's good stuff
off topic:
Scumbag Shkrelli just got an 84 month sentence

frontrunner for Blankfein's job
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_M._Solomon

the pullback likely will be bought around ema20.

Ha, so Cohen really did just get mad and left. His choice at the White House is the economist who wrote the new tax code, according to media.

David Stockman said it best "The end of the Goldman Regency".

HAPPY HOUR

i see "hanging man" candles
Bulkowski says "In theory, it is supposed to be a bearish reversal but it actually is a bullish continuation pattern 59% of the time. "
he calls 59% "almost random"

consolidation, bias is up.