Cobra's Market View

new range, let's see in which direction the breakout will be. equally important for both bulls and bears here.

Cobra wrote:1 = 5 target, well, hopefully. I'm disappointed.

What do u mean "1 = 5 target"? Sorry if it is a stupid question

Bears would say" Wish that turn out to be H&S"

Isnt the consolidation box mostly a continuation pattern of the trend -- which is down from the 1172 peak?

YM
Update.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/ym_13.html

qtipped wrote:i covered for a little profit...thought we were going to bounce off the MA and shoot for today's highs again. guess i'm wrong and now of course it drops more after i covered.

still a good chance we get to 118.10-118.25 area....looks my cover was a good decision.

overall mkt sentiment is measuring good with europe closing positive. i will short another day and may go long a little.

i'm seeing more of a triangle on the 5 minute, but i could be wrong.

jarbo456 wrote:

2011-09-13-TOS_CHARTS.jpg

i'm seeing more of a triangle on the 5 minute, but i could be wrong.

and much like the flag earlier, this looks like it wants to fail on the breakout as well.

Indecision. dow down all others up.
This kind of zzzzzzzz can change quick like shorts get nervous and start covering again. Signal is something like those 8 parabolic sticks in a row that come out of nowhere. Then I think dang it’s too late I missed it again (turns out it is rarely too late to jump on a monster squeeze).
Or the reverse, bad news and bammmm monster down.
Advancing issues 1800 decliners 1005, neither dominant yet (but advancers keep slowly creeping up).
So we know the bulls/bears are not in control here. The shorts are !

jarbo456 wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:

The attachment 2011-09-13-TOS_CHARTS.jpg is no longer available

i'm seeing more of a triangle on the 5 minute, but i could be wrong.

and much like the flag earlier, this looks like it wants to fail on the breakout as well.

i made a slight correction on the upper line, and it looks a little better with just more consolidation time.

waverider wrote:

cougar wrote:SPY 60 min gave a short swing BUY signal, with simultaneous confirmation (yellow vertical line).
However, as a longer swings player, I stay hedged and wait for a conversion of this signal into a “steady UP” - above 118.

Thanks for the chart. So if you were long you would hold into the close regardless of the movement on the close?

It depends on what they will do on close…Usually, there are ways to tell at the beginning of the last hour of trade. But if the atmosphere stays “uneventful”, then YES…I would keep it and maybe I would reduce the risk with a small hedge…

bushwaffle wrote:

proteus46 wrote:

SDS 9-13-11 5 MIN.png

Decision time for SDS, right at lunch time on the East Coast.

Today may be the inverse of yesterday....a bear run at end of day, imo.

Feels a little bit that way to me too, but any specifics as to why?

May be some nervousness before tomorrows meeting with Greece.

Investors may play it safe, I keep hearing that Greece will default, but
my sources are no better than anyone elses. Yesterdays pop caused by
an article written that Italy will be ok, thank you China.
It now takes a good rumor from an obscure reporter to lift the market, just not a good sign.

Put a fork into the Greece pig...

Zooming out to the weekly, the 10 and 80 SMAs are crossing over.

That is a pretty big deal- in over 15 years, these cross-overs have never miraculously "crossed back" and have each time signaled a bull/bear market cycle.

If there is any question as to where we are heading in the coming months, this should show you where!

I know we have short trading time horizons here folks, but always good to keep the big picture in mind.

Remember, in Bull markets, Bull market rules apply and things tend to resolve/break to the upside.

In Bear markets, Bear market rules apply and things tend to resolve/break to the downside.

We are entering a Bear market cycle (with this 10/80 weekly SMA crossover) so Bear market rules apply.

more likely to breakout on the upside. could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming.

there's no turning back for bulls, must advance, because it took only one leg for bear to push the market down but now it's being 2 legs already, bulls still not recovered half their morning losses.

BullTart wrote:Zooming out to the weekly, the 10 and 80 SMAs are crossing over.

That is a pretty big deal- in over 15 years, these cross-overs have never miraculously "crossed back" and have each time signaled a bull/bear market cycle.

If there is any question as to where we are heading in the coming months, this should show you where!

I know we have short trading time horizons here folks, but always good to keep the big picture in mind.

Remember, in Bull markets, Bull market rules apply and things tend to resolve/break to the upside.

In Bear markets, Bear market rules apply and things tend to resolve/break to the downside.

We are entering a Bear market cycle (with this 10/80 weekly SMA crossover) so Bear market rules apply.

No offense, but dont u think its a little too slow?? It seems like the recent 2008/09 cross was near when the markets reversed higher...

measured move target.

Cobra wrote:there's no turning back for bulls, must advance, because it took only one leg for bear to push the market down but now it's being 2 legs already, bulls still not recovered half their morning losses.

Cobra, you are the voice of reason in all the noise.

Thanks!

heavenskrow wrote:

BullTart wrote:Zooming out to the weekly, the 10 and 80 SMAs are crossing over.

That is a pretty big deal- in over 15 years, these cross-overs have never miraculously "crossed back" and have each time signaled a bull/bear market cycle.

If there is any question as to where we are heading in the coming months, this should show you where!

I know we have short trading time horizons here folks, but always good to keep the big picture in mind.

Remember, in Bull markets, Bull market rules apply and things tend to resolve/break to the upside.

In Bear markets, Bear market rules apply and things tend to resolve/break to the downside.

We are entering a Bear market cycle (with this 10/80 weekly SMA crossover) so Bear market rules apply.

No offense, but dont u think its a little too slow?? It seems like the recent 2008/09 cross was near when the markets reversed higher...

oh wait forgive me, i didnt see the blue line!!! i thought it was the red MA..my bad!!