Cobra's Market View

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Seems a good news in? Not sure whether the low was in or not.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/07 ... ay-update/

Courtesy of Bespoke Investment:

February 2002 was the last time the Nasdaq 100 dropped >1% for 3 days in a row, while the S&P 500 didn't drop >1% on any of those days.

The Nasdaq 100 has averaged a gain of 47 bps on the day after a 1%+ down Monday (315 events). Compared to an average gain of 0.06% for all Tuesdays. And when the Nasdaq has fallen 1%+ 3 trading days in a row, with the 3rd day being a Monday, the following day has averaged a gain of 0.91%... Turnaround Tuesday?

SPY Pbar update:
From yesterday evening 279.95
From 8am ET this morning 280.16 (was almost tagged at 9:15 just before market opened.)

old PBar levels around 280.86 and 281.12 seem in play right now.

If you were wondering what that was that rocked the markets about 8 minutes before the open (and messed up my feeble attempts at trend lines) it was Bloomberg claiming China and the US want to restart trade talks and avoid a disaster. Alistar posed on twitter a chart showing the savage short covering in the NASDAQ.

Trades with cats wrote:

ES 09-18 (2000 Tick) 2018_07_31 (7_48_10 AM).png

If you were wondering what that was that rocked the markets about 8 minutes before the open (and messed up my feeble attempts at trend lines) it was Bloomberg claiming China and the US want to restart trade talks and avoid a disaster. Alistar posed on twitter a chart showing the savage short covering in the NASDAQ.

Absolute nonsense! This is really irritating. How many times do they have to "restart trade talks" before the market ignores this junk. I can't believe the market is even reacting to this. Are humans really that stupid? You know the talks will go nowhere as long as Trump is in office because he will blow it up. I guarantee it! The market should just expect chaos as long as Trump is in office, that way it doesn't continue reacting to everything because it would have been factored in.
These folks can't keep messing up the charts with all the stupidity taking place. People have money on the line. These things should be handled in the background then brought out after an agreement has been reached and signed. Isn't that common sense?
.

morning hourly filled black bar. implication is on the top left of the chart itself.

Twitter feed pointing out the tariffs with China happen at midnight tonight.

Also something like 24 billion coming off the Feds balance sheet today.

Nice double top and now market returns to where the auction was interrupted by the news flash. Futures Trader 71 calls this the Scene of the Crime.

Comment on this morning. At about 9:05 or so FT71, in his morning broadcast, made it very clear, as in repeating it three times for us slow students that ES 2818 and above would be back to bull and ES 2788 1/4 would be back to bear. Then we get the Bloomberg trade rumor just before the opening volume kicks in and presto we elevator up to ES 2818. The fact that it did not hold says a lot. A year ago that would have been a slam dunk off to the races positive trend day.

Prefer a flush out late today tomorrow below 2800, maybe 2760 ish with fed report/jobs to save the day later in week... not sure we get it, but my preference....

triangle to resolve soon
perhaps to upside?

testing day high, range day or trend day, we'll know soon. suppose to be an uptrend day but so far acts like a range day.

Citi asks: What explains the lack of selling ?
Citi answers: because of herding behavior:
“… the move has the hallmarks of herd instincts at work … Absent a catalyst, herding behavior can be very persistent and can feed on itself…
[so don’t] … get too complacent…”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDQw21ntR64

did resolve to the upside
2816 and 2818 pot resistance

at least this bull shall have legs.

nibble short

Cobra wrote:at least this bull shall have legs.

Go BABY JANET GO!!