Cobra's Market View

Flat open, so any gap will be filled. Not much to say on Global ES either, the feeling is it might still miss one leg down to test yesterday's low (not necessarily a lower low), I'm not sure because it also can be seen as bull flag therefore another 100% Measured Move to 1060ish.

Good Morning, Cobra.

GM,
ES bull flag breaking out.

Good Morning Cobra,

Below from Caldaro EWT

The divisions: Minor 1 SPX 1150, Minor 2 SPX 1176, Minor 3 SPX 1075, and Minor 4 underway now. After this rally concludes the SPX should head back down to make lower downtrend lows for Intermediate wave iii. What would throw this Minor wave count off would be if the SPX rallied over 1150 before making those lows.

Hi Cobra,
I am thinking about "bullish reversal day". I would suggest you an analysis. My hypothesis is that the "bullish reversal day" has higher chance if the close on the reversal day is higher then previous day's high. More previous days' highs are beaten the higher the chance for a succesfull reversal. (May be because more trend follower's bad positions are trapped in.) Yesterday's close was not higher than even just the previous day's high. This is why I am sceptical about the success of that reversal.

Cobra, I guess you got the typo ( 1160 not 1060). thanks

Good morning !
What the EW bulls want:

Cobra, you may want post the link to the web, as many people do not know that it can also be found on the right hand side.

QQQ did not make a lower Low.
OK…a truncated W5.…
Now, the Qs are inside a virtual isosceles triangle… When they get out of it, I will get really excited…

NDX internals: back in a cycling mode.
Nice…but no cigar yet…

morning guys.. hey cobra just fyi, your message didn't go out so people subscribing via rss didn't get today's link.

Good Morning, Cobra and everyone.

I will consider a trade above 113.5 to confirm a trend reversal anything below is sellable. we are still down below 5 dama sell the rip is on.

GM Cobra GM!!!!!!!!!!

cougar wrote:NDX internals: back in a cycling mode.
Nice…but no cigar yet…

I am with you, thanks

BullBear52x wrote:I will consider a trade above 113.5 to confirm a trend reversal anything below is sellable. we are still down below 5 dama sell the rip is on.

I see. I think 113.5, likely not reachable. so sellable likely.

Today's Economic Calendar
MBA Mortgage Applications Index -4.3%, purchases index -0.8%, refinancing index -5.2% and the 30yr FRM decreased from 4.24% to 4.18%.


8.15 ADP private payrolls (cons 73k)

10.00 ISM non-manufacturing index (est 53.5)
10.30 DOE Inventory Data

Crude Oil – est 1500k, last week 1015k

Gasoline – est 1500k, last week 791k

Distillate – est -300k, last week 72k
Refinery Utilization – est -0.50%, last week -0.50%

For VIX...watch 39:

the open. it's very stretched, so got to be some consolidation here at least.

gabor wrote:Hi Cobra,
I am thinking about "bullish reversal day". I would suggest you an analysis. My hypothesis is that the "bullish reversal day" has higher chance if the close on the reversal day is higher then previous day's high. More previous days' highs are beaten the higher the chance for a succesfull reversal. (May be because more trend follower's bad positions are trapped in.) Yesterday's close was not higher than even just the previous day's high. This is why I am sceptical about the success of that reversal.

thanks, let me check the history.