Cobra's Market View

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no idea up or down from here. when not sure, always give bulls more credit.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/02 ... ay-update/

The market is opening where it left off yesterday. Breakout from the range that began on January 18. Will it hold? It might, but aside from all the giants buying, I think it is suspect. It wants to go up for sure.

NQ opens gap down.

INTC and V having a nice run.

Testing the waters low. Back later ...

today will be an up trend day,buy dip is the only thing

wxtrader001 wrote:today will be an up trend day,buy dip is the only thing

careful, rug has 2 hands on it, any day now be a decent tug....

sharp up from here then it's an uptrend day which I find hard to believe though.

from Greg the Analyst on Twitter today

He says "Going back to my dead-cat bounce move. I analysed ALL recessions and stock market declines since 1900... Most recessions created bounce from 0.5 or 0.618..., but I found 2 recessions 1973 & 1937 which jumped to 0.382. Same time massive record dump in commodities yesterday."

I think 1937 is Ray Dalio's current analog.
We are not out of the woods and the Fed caving shows how bad things are.
Also this January bounce had net outflows from the market. This will be resolved, but not quickly.

so now it's clearly a range day. might rebound all the way to the day high.

January flows:
$10.55 billion in OUTFLOWS from SPY
$3.4 billion in OUTFLOWS from IWM
And on the inflow side, looks like funds are flowing into emerging markets and various bond ETFs Explain that one bulls

BAC and EPFR and zh opine that it may be “…All Just One Giant Short Squeeze… "
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02- ... to+zero%29

And this is the aggregate FLOW that includes the December drop AND the January rally

Dumb question: When you buy to cover your short, doesn’t that show up as a buy/inflow ??

Al_Dente wrote:Dumb question: When you buy to cover your short, doesn’t that show up as a buy/inflow ??

Dumber question: how is inflow calculated? When a share is traded, it is sold and bought. There is no inflow, net is zero. When money comes in, do company issue more shares? I never figure out how this works.

This is Northman Trading also banging the drum (in an elegant way) that we are in the classic dead cat bounce as seen in the last two recessions. So I stick with this limit because in the last two the Fed was thinking pretty close to the way they are now.
https://northmantrader.com/2019/02/01/bull-trap/

Just to throw wood on the fire futures markets are now betting on a Fed rate cut in the 4th quarter. The last four initial rate cuts were followed by recessions within 3 months. So Merry Christmas.

q2model wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:Dumb question: When you buy to cover your short, doesn’t that show up as a buy/inflow ??

Dumber question: how is inflow calculated? When a share is traded, it is sold and bought. There is no inflow, net is zero. When money comes in, do company issue more shares? I never figure out how this works.

ETF units are not stocks.

When money comes in more ETF units can be created. When money is withdrawn (redemption) ETF units can be ‘uncreated’.

Hand money to ETF, they create more units and go buy the stuff in that ETF. Demand your ETF money back, they sell the contents and send the money to you, and also shrinking the number of units still in that ETF.

Roughly translated, that explanation is.

q2model wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:Dumb question: When you buy to cover your short, doesn’t that show up as a buy/inflow ??

Dumber question: how is inflow calculated? When a share is traded, it is sold and bought. There is no inflow, net is zero. When money comes in, do company issue more shares? I never figure out how this works.

go figure; i can't either
here is the FLOW link:
https://www.etf.com/etfanalytics/etf-fund-flows-tool