07/31/2019 Live Update

[Cobra]

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no idea up or down from here. waiting for the roller coaster show at 2 pm.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/07 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

probably will be within this range until roller coaster show, take the time to relax.

[JFR]

Overnight gap up on ES, NQ, YM and IWM. ES basing. NQ pulling back then basing. YM gap up and running. IWM pulling back. As always the market is resilient. It spooks me, though. I am ready to jump on the overnight, down the mountain train at any time. Ha ha

[te_fern]

Interesting trendline, was resistance all day yesterday. Can we get back to it while we wait on the FED??

[JFR]

Brexit and Boris Johnson Send the British Pound on a Slide -- New York Times

Brexit. Scotland did not want to go there. And they might still not have to go there. It seemed evident to me from the get go that Brexit was an emotional issue for those in favour of it, and that it will continue to be devastating for the U.K. Just imo.

[te_fern]

Watching the smalls, can it keep moving higher????

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:02 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/07 ... ay-update/

[JFR]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/31/busi ... e=Homepage

“The markets see turbulence for the economy,” said Kjersti Haugland, chief economist at DNB Markets, an investment bank in Oslo. “They see the potential for the economy to contract abruptly.”

The decline in the pound is at once a reflection of the market’s recognition that Britain has been economically weakened by Brexit, and a cause for distress.

The drop effectively raises prices for a vast range of British imports, from fruit and vegetables shipped in from Spain to chemicals and industrial parts made in Germany. It increases the costs of international travel, just as Britons flock to the beaches of the Mediterranean for summer holidays.

In theory, the weaker pound should bolster British exports by making them relatively cheaper than those produced by competitors in Europe, North America and Asia.

But given that Britain imports more than it exports, the net effect is negative. Whatever advantages exporters might gain would almost surely be canceled out by barriers to trade across the English Channel if Britain really leaves Europe without a deal.

Most broadly, the decline in the pound signals that investors see less need for British currency in the future, because Brexit is already reducing the appeal of doing business in Britain.

I agree with all those points.

[Mr. BachNut]

BachNut pre-FOMC NYMO blah blah blah.

Since the last post, NYMO has been coiling around the zero line without direction.
The model remains on down cycle, but that is because it does not include neutral as a state.
After the Fed and into the new month, NYMO will pick a direction and cycle up or down.

Price has opened up small gap targets above while avoiding the stack of targets below.
Price has remained in the blue/orange channel, but a bit of a wedge has formed making things a bit pinchy at the moment.
The upper keltner looks like it wants to curl down.
Normal FOMC behavior would argue that those upper gaps get closed real soon.
The wedgie look of things suggests that the bulls need to start asserting themselves again soon or the bears will get some lunch.

I remain flat.
Interestingly, I have a long setup on the R2k and a short setup on the SPX ready to go... proof I haven't a clue...

[JFR]

Big picture. ES basing at the top.

Back later ...

[Al_Dente]

Cyan
The SMALLS squeeze continues
5 days, 15min %

[Al_Dente]

What makes SMALLS so strong?
1) short squeeze (last week’s COT showed net short 87k in the Russell 2000 mini-index)
2) small tech and small industrials lead (black and blue)
(% YTD, daily)

[Cobra]

members only update at 11:56 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/07 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

so far in the ranged I "planed" for the market. a direct breakout here would probably fail, better bulls take a rest first.

[BullBear52x]

I am leaning bearish still, will sell the Fed spike high if any today, fearful market. will see.

[BullBear52x]

Buy PUT SPY and LONG /ES is the game right now.

[BullBear52x]

A sell off today could make the top soooooo...it is what it is.

[Cobra]

show time in 1 minute. I bet strong up after roller coaster show, just for fun, won't bet my money on it.

[Al_Dente]

FED cuts a quarter point