Cobra's Market View

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no idea up or down from here. the chart looks missing a revisit of the yesterday's low. that said, we've seen so many times that bears in many cases were just one legged...

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/08 ... ay-update/

Going forward, yesterday's low is key for short term trend. more than 50% of SPX stocks under 20 DMA. If bulls miss-step it will be ugly fast.

Range bound, waiting for new sell setup. no buy for me.

selling now.

Cash SPX Fib, wishful thinking, I am on the south bound train.

resistance, here's the bear's last chance for today. my guess, just a guess, bears have no chance today, although officially to me it's a range day unless bulls can break above the yesterday's high which to me would be too late to long.

Steady freddy now.....

Well, bulls need to do more to surprise me.

...

Feels like its topping out, would like today to switch hard to sell.

Still in the up channel, waiting to see if it will fall out....

40 handles bounce. this is big cat. I am still on the wrong side just average out to get even that's all for now.

Rate cut, albeit not a consensus, plus QT to end soon.
That is dovish.
Yesterday, Steve Liesman suggested that Powell thinks he’s a better communicator than he really is.
There was no need for that market volatility yesterday. Powell said shit, then had to walk it back.
Folks just want the Dove and the punchbowl.
The algos control the big ETFs (?), and they went nuts, but the Fed’s owners (banks) remained “relatively” stable.
Banks, YTD, %, daily

no strength on this dead cat bounce, NONE!

5 min. is now entering first sell the rip zone. let see how the bulls will handle this sell level.

maybe a pullback here first which likely would be bought later.

I was over confidence with first sell ( no stop) thinking It will pull back enough to get out and wait for new setup. well, so far my score is 3-0. the black arrow is my recovery point if two of those level hit, I will walk out as a winning bear today, if not, well...losing my shirt today. will see.

Bond world flashing some giant warning flags. High yield looks good for risk but treasuries are telling a different story.