Cobra's Market View

Odds of an October rate cut 90.3%
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/intere ... -fomc.html

Cobra wrote:Not just today, the low for the whole pullback was in. I know this sounds ridiculous...

Not at all. Targets are set, algos hit them-- prior low, 200ema, 200ma, Fib-level, measured move etc. etc. and then they simply reverse the position. No panic. And such targets can be hit in two days or two weeks, time is irrelevant.

Panic is for us lowly humans. ..

Cobra wrote:

daytradingES wrote:

Cobra wrote:off the record, maybe the entire pullback was over, THE low was in. Let's see. Why? I've seen this pattern several times: down and down, no panic, the last day down in the morning very scary then simply reversed without any reason. today so far looks like the case.

"THE low " - for today?

Not today, the low for the whole pullback was in. I know this sounds ridiculous but really I saw this kind of things happened several times. Let's see.

Thanks. Your feedback is valuable.

Indecision, t's clear what state of the market we are in, I am bullish bias but will not hesitate to short the hell of this either.

There are other signs that this may/might be “the” low:
PC ratio buy “zone”
NYMO turn “zone”

At the close we’ll see:
Will the TRIN go bull?
Will the VIX give its famous BUY signal (by closing below its upper bolinger)?


HOWEVER:
What to worry about tomorrow, ALL PRE MARKET
Also, five FED speakers are scheduled throughout the day

It is being reported that the bounce was portfolio buying, not algos. Reason given was after the economic reports odds of Fed rate cuts moved significantly. So bad news is good news which is the dogma of this lost decade (lost to central planning). Some day, as they say Karma will run over the dogma, but not just yet. All demonstrated in the prior posts on this board.

Tin foil hat sort of- you know darn well that a third day of run away selling is not permissible, hasn't happened since the sub prime crash. The key levels were broadly talked about in advance. My guess is when the Fed cut odds moved that was the signal to defend the key levels and I would not be surprised at all if Goldman's buy back desk unleashed a lot of money.

Edit- need to be clear this is how I think Karma will end the Dogma-
After all the Fed getting back to in sync with the bond market is the signal that the recession has arrived. At that point I have no idea if FAANG boards will continue current practice on buybacks or do what they did in the last recession and curtail buybacks. And that question is the key to the length of this bull market. Because without the FAANGs it is already pretty much over and buyback cash is the primary net cash going into equities.I assume FAANG board members go to cocktail parties with the presidents of their local Federal Reserve branch. They just don't call it central planning.

That is such a nice looking channel with the lines confirmed by multiple touches but as you know once I can draw them they usually stop working.

Cats: “Because without the FAANGs it is already pretty much over”
Agree
No matter how you cut it, SPX is Big-Tech's bitch
(Techs are 31% or more of SPX)
I can’t fit SPX in this chart, but on the same scale (2 months) it would be down -1.89%, compared to QQQ down -2.31%

Today we saw the live action of Algos buy strength. but what is the most important thing to note was the historic supports/Resistances lines do matter with the help of all the standard breadth and common TA indicators. what we need is GUT, lots of it, and a trust in your own eyes and your your best friend. ( your charts is your only friend in this market)

I will call it a day today, tomorrow is another day. Peace!

Chart for the road: $TRIN is not ready for this prime time. I will still counter trend until we are back in side the BB band. happy trading all, Peace!

Must get above 2920, or back inside the Bollinger Bands to turn this drop into a 3 wave corrective. Otherwise this is just a 4 with 5 on deck which will set a lower low.

So I see this as the EMT's have dragged the market out of the Tesla before it caught on fire but it is a ways to go in the ambulance before the patient can be stabilized in the hospital. Personally I think the surgeon in charge (FOMC) needs to consult with PBoC before they go into the operating room.

so the 3rd leg up as expected. I don't expect it to reach the 100% mm target again before a meaningful pullback though but the pullback should be bought again.

Two/Three C/P Option Sentiment Indicators = DOWN

Downvolume > Upvolume = DOWN

A big reason why this time is not like the prior mini recessions.

BullBear52x wrote:Today we saw the live action of Algos buy strength. but what is the most important thing to note was the historic supports/Resistances lines do matter with the help of all the standard breadth and common TA indicators. what we need is GUT, lots of it, and a trust in your own eyes and your your best friend. ( your charts is your only friend in this market)

I will call it a day today, tomorrow is another day. Peace!

Thanks! I appreciate your charts and thoughts.

.

HAPPY HOUR

Two months, daily, 20/50 default MAs

Trades with cats wrote:Must get above 2920, or back inside the Bollinger Bands to turn this drop into a 3 wave corrective. Otherwise this is just a 4 with 5 on deck which will set a lower low.

So I see this as the EMT's have dragged the market out of the Tesla before it caught on fire but it is a ways to go in the ambulance before the patient can be stabilized in the hospital. Personally I think the surgeon in charge (FOMC) needs to consult with PBoC before they go into the operating room.

Musk (Powell) says everything is Okay!

.

here's how Non Farm Payroll day performed recently: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449394

SOMEBODY IS LYING:
GS: stock buybacks…"are getting muted" and thus clients are turning cautious.
BAC: "corporate buybacks accelerated to their strongest weekly level in our data history since 2009", led by Tech buybacks for the fifth week."