Cobra's Market View

Hi, guys, poll time again. SPX has been down 7 days in a row, got to be a rebound of some kind, right?

So the question is: Are we going to have a sharp rebound the next week? And if indeed, how are you preparing for that, accumulating a little by a little now or wait to sell the rally?

Thanks for all your charts this week Cobra. And give my best to SuperBen!

I voted for doom -- we could get some rebound next week but probably not a meaningful one.

yes, there will be a rebound from 1140----1200

Absolutely! But the question is when. I guess we may not see this happens before USD/EUR get to this year's low (1.30).

I expect a bottom to form in the next 3 days.

This market will only reward courageous on both sides. Must have alot of balls to take long this weekend. Having said that can gap up large and go higher Monday BIG and then late longs get scorched on Tuesday when we retest low. By Dec 1 we probably bottomed out for rest of year slowly to 1250. Then January we fall again in a big way. My opinion only. Trade carefully.

Buckethead wrote:This market will only reward courageous on both sides. Must have alot of balls to take long this weekend. Having said that can gap up large and go higher Monday BIG and then late longs get scorched on Tuesday when we retest low. By Dec 1 we probably bottomed out for rest of year slowly to 1250. Then January we fall again in a big way. My opinion only. Trade carefully.

I think all of the men here have two balls max the question is are they steel or are they meat?

No Thanksgiving rally, German bonds are cosidered as junk. Anything can happen next week. Do you understand?Anything. Until the common eurobond is created this chaos is going on. If it is created, then we may rally, but recession is still on the horizon.

SPX might be at support, but this BPNYA chart looks bad for bulls:

Anectodally hearing around, sentiment looks short term traders not many short but not many long. No balls either way. Thanksgiving game over too. The "easy" make money long was big failure this year. Today the last holiday longs left that game at the close.

What do I see in my dreams? What is it that screws the majority short term. So bulls now looking for lower to get aggressive long and some ball-less greedy late shorts looking for more down. So the screw the most scenario is Monday we gap up and run. Many bulls unlikely to chase the morning cos of great fear of intraday reversal so we bid up all Monday BIG and then the bulls finally "reverse-capitulate" and chase long near the close where we push to the high of day. So the herd loads up there on the non-participation agony. Then we retest low Tues/Wed.

Also:

NYMO is way oversold should be good for a 3% bounce early next week.
Bollinger bandwidth on major indexes declined today, first day since plunge started. Why is this important? Because bollinger bandwidth expanding WIDE is continuation of trend. When contracts,usually trend reversal for 1-2 days.

GreedyKojiro wrote:

Buckethead wrote:This market will only reward courageous on both sides. Must have alot of balls to take long this weekend. Having said that can gap up large and go higher Monday BIG and then late longs get scorched on Tuesday when we retest low. By Dec 1 we probably bottomed out for rest of year slowly to 1250. Then January we fall again in a big way. My opinion only. Trade carefully.

I think all of the men here have two balls max the question is are they steel or are they meat?

Buckethead wrote:Anectodally hearing around, sentiment looks short term traders not many short but not many long. No balls either way. Thanksgiving game over too. The "easy" make money long was big failure this year. Today the last holiday longs left that game at the close.

What do I see in my dreams? What is it that screws the majority short term. So bulls now looking for lower to get aggressive long and some ball-less greedy late shorts looking for more down. So the screw the most scenario is Monday we gap up and run. Many bulls unlikely to chase the morning cos of great fear of intraday reversal so we bid up all Monday BIG and then the bulls finally "reverse-capitulate" and chase long near the close where we push to the high of day. So the herd loads up there on the non-participation agony. Then we retest low Tues/Wed.

Also:

NYMO is way oversold should be good for a 3% bounce early next week.
Bollinger bandwidth on major indexes declined today, first day since plunge started. Why is this important? Because bollinger bandwidth expanding WIDE is continuation of trend. When contracts,usually trend reversal for 1-2 days.

GreedyKojiro wrote:

Buckethead wrote:This market will only reward courageous on both sides. Must have alot of balls to take long this weekend. Having said that can gap up large and go higher Monday BIG and then late longs get scorched on Tuesday when we retest low. By Dec 1 we probably bottomed out for rest of year slowly to 1250. Then January we fall again in a big way. My opinion only. Trade carefully.

I think all of the men here have two balls max the question is are they steel or are they meat?

I agree.

I'm waiting for a huge volume day for the trend to switch... such as 11/17 on SPY which started this bear party.

Holding TLT

Voted:

No, there won't be any meaningful rebound, we're doomed. Run as fast as you can!

First post

deacoes wrote:I'm waiting for a huge volume day for the trend to switch... such as 11/17 on SPY which started this bear party.

Holding TLT

Voted:

No, there won't be any meaningful rebound, we're doomed. Run as fast as you can!

First post

Welcome aboard!

Sharp correction is to be expected IMO.
I'll short over 1200.

Hi there,

Voted: No, there won't be any meaningful rebound, we're doomed. Run as fast as you can!

I am expecting first 1100-1120, then rebound to level 1140-1150.