03/18/2020 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Another halt so should open lower than the halt point. The line below may gets tested which may not hold as it's the 3rd test while triple bottom is rare.

[Cobra]

Members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2020/03 ... ay-update/

[BullBear52x]

No reversal up today will be really bad. -20% day/, lets get it over with and have a Wall street holiday for the rest of the year.

[JFR]

SPY 5. Opens gap down.

[Heck]

$SPX BUYING > 2,389.20

[Cobra]

The usual pattern after a big gap down is to rebound to EMA20 first before either up or down. Let's see.

[BullBear52x]

Testing the water, buy the panic

[mattchessen]

Everyone should read this report. It's the one that Boris Johnston and Trump were briefed on over the weekend. Caused the UK to do a 180 on their virus policy. If you believe the scenarios (and I do) we're facing 2-3 month lockdowns, followed by periods of lifting, outbreaks and more lockdowns for 12-24 months. = global depression. Read for yourself and make up your own mind. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

[Heck]

SPY BUYING > 236.23

[JFR]

SPY 5. In a base, temporarily.

[BullTart]

descending rectangle still in play - looking out for the punch through the bottom of the rectangle... possibly a retest, and then a kiss goodbye to the downside - kept tvix positions from yesterday overnight

[JFR]

SPY 5. Jailbreak.

[ocassional observer]

I live in the UK now (actually self-isolating with my family at home having symptoms of covid-19 but can't test it). Watching the government approach of going open-eyed into a catastrophe was excruciating. I'm glad they did the U-turn, I'm just not sure they did it within time. I'm actually coming to the conclusion that the best way forward is to do a controlled infection of the not at risk population by first self-isolate all households, infect a few households, see that they don't develop severe complications and move on to the next households.
the most important things to understand about covid-19 is that:
1. it has exponential growth.
2. the cases you diagnose now are reflective of the situation about 7 days ago.

That means that if you use the data you currently have to make decisions it is based on the situation a week ago, while the virus is spreading at around 30% a day (depending on the level of social distancing applied). so when you actually make a change, the contagion is 1.3^7=627% more than what your data shows.

[merryme]

To the OCASSIONAL OBSERVER: Feel better. Keep us posted. Praying that your family comes through unscathed.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:05 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2020/03 ... ay-update/

[K447]

... do a controlled infection of the not at risk population by first self-isolate all households, infect a few households, see that they don't develop severe complications and move on to the next households.
...

It is not possible to achieve 100% isolation across the larger community even with good self-isolation practices, so there will be an ongoing infection transmission even with 'isolated' family units.

So your experiment is going to occur. The goverment can (to some degree) adjust this 'natural' rate of cross infection by adjusting the degree of lockdown in various areas.

The key is to get the testing rate high enough that the data is current and as accurate as possible.

[Cobra]

I live in the UK now (actually self-isolating with my family at home having symptoms of covid-19 but can't test it). Watching the government approach of going open-eyed into a catastrophe was excruciating. I'm glad they did the U-turn, I'm just not sure they did it within time. I'm actually coming to the conclusion that the best way forward is to do a controlled infection of the not at risk population by first self-isolate all households, infect a few households, see that they don't develop severe complications and move on to the next households.
the most important things to understand about covid-19 is that:
1. it has exponential growth.
2. the cases you diagnose now are reflective of the situation about 7 days ago.

That means that if you use the data you currently have to make decisions it is based on the situation a week ago, while the virus is spreading at around 30% a day (depending on the level of social distancing applied). so when you actually make a change, the contagion is 1.3^7=627% more than what your data shows.

I agree with you, isolation is important. You take care, wish all the best to you!

[Cobra]

It's morning hourly hollow red

[JFR]

SPY 5. Pulling back from the EMA 20.

[Cobra]

Touching EMA20 as usual, now let's wait for the true direction. The recent pattern was up and up until after 12 pm then down and down till the close.