Cobra's Market View

Good Morning.

Some updates for the weekend crowd.

AUDJPY-ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/ ... es_24.html
ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/es_24.html

SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/spx_24.html
RUT http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/rut_24.html
DWCF http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/dwcf_24.html

Copper http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/copper_24.html
Crude http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/crude_24.html

Gold http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/gold_24.html
Silver http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/silver_24.html

Dollar http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/dollar_24.html
30-Year http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/30y_24.html

And in case you missed it, my Christmas card: http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/gift_24.html

Happy Holidays!

Merry Christmas to all
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S84RLgnz7Rs

Merry Christmas!

Can we reach 1294.4 around Jan 3rd 2012?
Yes, we can!==============
Two recent ovoids better accommodate a decreasing volatility.

Nice chart, cougar. As always.

The Weakest Link

EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/eurusd_24.html
EURJPY http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/eurjpy.html

And a good read to boot:

Eurozone sovereigns must raise €1.6 trillion in 2012, and banks must raise another €700bn.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/am ... technical/

Two More

TNX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/tnx_24.html
VIX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/vix_24.html

Finally, a holiday movie: "Santa Claus Conquers the Martians."

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/12/24/h ... -martians/

Merry Christmas!

year in review:

Bull/Bear on SPY and SSO got 4 more trading days to claim victory too close to call.on DIA and QQQ Bulls won the trophy for 2011on IWM and XLF Bears won the trophy for 2011 Merry Christmas 2011 to all.

Thanks for the charts everyone, happy holidays! Here's a chart of $SPX disconnecting a bit too far from $SOX, not a bullish development!
:

Happy Holiday

The Ted Spread has had this rough benchmark for at least the last three decades:
Above 0.50 is tight credit, high credit risk
Under 0.50 is “all clear”
This is difficult to “prove” via stockcharts, as they only give us history back to 2008 (and LIBOR back to 2004).
TED is still continuing her bearish divergence with SPY. One of them has to give.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TED&p ... =248214703

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58mMEJ-k ... re=related

Scholarly “Working Paper” at the Federal Reserve Board

“Rising Inequality: Transitory or Permanent? New Evidence…“
“We find that the increase in inequality over our sample period was entirely permanent for male earnings…”

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds ... 60abs.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSfb908m ... re=related

Long bonds have gone down as spy has gone up, as it should be. But note two little differences here:
1) Short terms have gone down considerably more than longs. Well, they are usually more sensitive, but note that the 2 yr also led down in September
2) Munis have broken out to higher highs !
I don’t have an explanation for that, so I await the comments of a smarter person.
(caveat: this is from stockcharts.com, and they have been know to make mistakes on bond quotes).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... =245064294

Also note that Junk JNK/HYG and coporate bonds LQD are “risk-on”, confirming the equity rally,
and that HYG is less than two points away from taking out its Oct high.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LQD&p= ... =251886454

Finally, our favorite intraday bond market barometer $TNX, is registering intraday overbought, but as usual she can remain overbought for as long as she likes (SPY is purple behind TNX):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p ... =251865300

Here's an interesting persepctive on the Ted Spread: http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2008/11/ ... ck-market/

So honey...what's for breakfast?

NQ http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/nq_26.html
TF http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/tf.html
YM http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/ym_26.html

Fruit cake?

GM, chart junkies
Looking back at the analogy that I use for longer term out look, well...doesn't play out exactly but doesn't fail totally either, there is strong enough evidences that it could break out.and here I use quadrant lines to see, well above 75% considered bullish break out, this coming week should unmask what she wants to do.

Algyros wrote:Here's an interesting persepctive on the Ted Spread: http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2008/11/ ... ck-market/

Thanks so much for that link algyros, VERY interesting to read a contrarian strategy that was only four months (6 nov 08) before the final March 2009 bottom, but those last four months were quite painful for early contrarian bulls. (On the other hand, trend following bulls were 4 months late to buy long, oh, let’s say July 2009, but it wasn’t as painful).

Note that although TED was signaling bear throughout 2008 (and probably much earlier), she didn’t go completely berserk until late 2008, a full year after October 2007, which was one of the most significant tops in history.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0NoHN1T ... re=related

Here I play around the Gap, see the filled and unfilled area, 127, 121, 116 still at large, so based on gap analysis we will be trading in bigger sideways range in the futures. sell at 127 high and buy 116 should be a good spot to put our eyes on right?I post this chart last Friday to see the High and Low of it.

Short term, trend is up buy the dip. I'll let my yellow lines decide for me.what's really interest to me was when I look at the four futures traded at the end of day Friday something was not right here, you got to wonder someone forgot to push buy on the Russell 2000?.Russell 2000 was weak on cash index also in comparison.

BullBear52x wrote:GM, chart junkies...Looking back at the analogy that I use for longer term out look, well...doesn't play out exactly but doesn't fail totally either, there is strong enough evidences that it could break out.

spy1a.JPG

and here I use quadrant lines to see, well above 75% considered bullish break out, this coming week should unmask what she wants to do.

spy2.JPG

Hi BB, whatja get for Xmas?
Nice charts, as usual.
If we glance at jarbo’s volume-by-price approach, we are at exactly the same volume-assisted resistance today as we were in the 2010 correction.
Also note the uncanny similarity between 2010 $BPSPX and $NYA50R versus today’s.
No matter how we look at it, only SPY above 130 or below 116 can confirm.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... =250491882

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfngXJMyoS4

99er wrote:So honey...what's for breakfast?

NQ http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/nq_26.html
TF http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/tf.html
YM http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/ym_26.html

Fruit cake?

Yes...with lots of walnuts and cherries…soaking in scotch for one week…
“Pfffsss……and cappuccino!” says Volpinacci!

Al_Dente wrote:Long bonds have gone down as spy has gone up, as it should be. But note two little differences here:
1) Short terms have gone down considerably more than longs. Well, they are usually more sensitive, but note that the 2 yr also led down in September
2) Munis have broken out to higher highs !
I don’t have an explanation for that, so I await the comments of a smarter person.
(caveat: this is from stockcharts.com, and they have been know to make mistakes on bond quotes).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... =245064294

Also note that Junk JNK/HYG and coporate bonds LQD are “risk-on”, confirming the equity rally,
and that HYG is less than two points away from taking out its Oct high.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LQD&p= ... =251886454

Finally, our favorite intraday bond market barometer $TNX, is registering intraday overbought, but as usual she can remain overbought for as long as she likes (SPY is purple behind TNX):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p ... =251865300

Nice work Al! interesting TNX versus SPY!
Here is my daily TNX 3LB with several significant levels it has to overcome…
Note that it is still working on a first green bar, before attempting to take the 21 level…

BullBear52x wrote:Short term, trend is up buy the dip. I'll let my yellow lines decide for me.

The attachment spy5.JPG is no longer available

what's really interest to me was when I look at the four futures traded at the end of day Friday something was not right here, you got to wonder someone forgot to push buy on the Russell 2000?.

The attachment spy.JPG is no longer available

Russell 2000 was weak on cash index also in comparison.

The attachment spy1.JPG is no longer available

Great observation BullBear…Yes, they forgot the Russell behind…LOL!
Also, something amusing: AAPL had an unexpected visitor on close: a Bearish Gartley butterfly. The negation of this butterfly would be very bullish, predicting an attempt for a breakout, away from a still valid ellipse.

Note, also on AAPL: it has an ATR =6.61 and still a wide Empirical Mode envelope, both indicating that it has not been touched by the “low volatility syndrome” of the last 2 weeks…

[I shall come back later to that volatility issue, in the context of what is and what might not be manipulated…]