Cobra's Market View

Interesting article.

Title: "Five Best Trade Ideas For The Next Two Weeks"

http://goo.gl/F3Oyl

NDD wrote:Thanks Al Dente
Any suggestion too which instrument one should use if one is aiming to keep a positions in the long term account (5-10 years) and/or reasons to why not start investing asap.

No, sorry. I like to day trade here, for swing trades/intermediate term “instruments”, I watch Cobra’s “Trading Signals” and “Portfolio Update” over on his main subscription page.
To me, his stats on the first five days in January are compelling reasons to wait five days for a longer term commitment, but that’s just me.

Updates

ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/es.html
NQ http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/nq.html
YM http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/ym.html

And a cartoon: http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/ ... -year.html

Happy New Year!

99er wrote:Updates

ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/es.html
NQ http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/nq.html
YM http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/ym.html

And a cartoon: http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/ ... -year.html

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year, 99er!
Nice charts!
On my DOW Weekly Chart we are getting closer to the time pivot of the week ending on Feb 17, 2012.

To be honest, I am bullish for the first few months of 2012. In decadinal analysis years ending in 2 have a bullish slant while Presidential election years tend to be bullish. That bodes well for a bullish start to the year.

NDD wrote:Anyone here paying attention to DAX, who could give me some input on whether it leads or lags spx.. Quite a huge gain today which may imply a gap up tomorrow on the spx?

Thanks for all your insightful comments, may 2012 be a prosperous year for all!

I would have to say SPX lead from pricing level or fib measurement.

BullBear52x wrote:I don't trade GLD but will 130 be of interest to anyone? that's what it looks to be at the moment. long term out look is sure shaky on GLD

The attachment spy.JPG is no longer available

The attachment spy1.JPG is no longer available

Yes…why not?! A 138 % extension is perfectly compatible with the accelerated downtrend that we witnessed .
Most of the gold bugs have now a GLD target around 140 - slightly overshooting under the AB=CD classical extension, with the same timing as on my old Weekly Cycles chart…
Probably a coincidence…LOL!

=====
Nice charts, BB!
Have a Happy New Year!

Thanks Cougar and happy new year to you too.

well, all roads lead to Rome

BullBear52x wrote:Thanks Cougar and happy new year to you too.

well, all roads lead to Roam

...or to Romney???
LOL!

Dr. Al RE: UNG I tried every blue bar until last Nov. I called it quit chasing, wait for the true turn counter trend on UNG has not been good, got plenty of time at every bottom to get out safely but too much energy required to trade it. I am waiting for the new set up. not good looking however you put it.

cougar wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:Thanks Cougar and happy new year to you too.

well, all roads lead to Roam

...or to Romney???
LOL!

LOL I meant to say ROME, fixed!

BullBear52x wrote:

cougar wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:Thanks Cougar and happy new year to you too.

well, all roads lead to Roam

...or to Romney???
LOL!

LOL I meant to say ROME, fixed!

Got that!
One more thing about GLD: here is a “geeky strategy chart”.
“Stochastic Crossovers” and “Percentage R System” synergize to give longer term swing BUY or SELL signals. We are obviously still selling.
Also, we should keep in mind a strong resistance at 161..

BullBear52x wrote:

tdo722 wrote:1. This is what I'm watching like a hawk. eur/usd bounced at horizontal support 1.28732 hence we got the 1-day MAD on 12/29/2011

2. RSI Daily chart positive divergence. Why this is huge? I already checked and the last time there's a RSI positive divergence on the daily chart is when Moses received the 10 commandments from God (well, that's how long it has been, lol)

3. Once eur/usd breaks the down channel, we will see SPX rallies like there's no tomorrow

4. Commercial traders has heavily long EURO while non-commercial traders are heavily short EURO. I received this tip from someone on Daneric site to confirm my belief on the eur/usd about to rally hard (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmesof.htm)

I am holding a few spy puts over the holiday weekend. Need comments and suggestions from y'all. Happy New Year everyone!

I would use DBV over Eur/usd. if you want to see the liquidity side of thing.

Glad that you mentioned DBV. I am watching it very carefully right now!
Was that support at the midline of A’s Fork, or will it still go down to meet the 3x1 line of the Gann Fan around 23.3 ? My personal bias is the reversal… but we shall see.

Also, for cross-reference, a $DXY chart with the same “Geeky Strategy” used for GLD, which worked surprisingly well…
Notice that here all the entry points are early, i.e. on “yellow bars = potential change in trend” generated by the %RSystem.

Al_Dente wrote:HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL COBRA PEOPLE

Al Dente’s New Year’s Market Resolutions 2012

1) Don’t fight price or volume
2) Tweak or banish indicators that are liars. Identify truthful indicators and stay with them
3) Trust canaries and divergences that have signaled turns in the past, but give them time to work out
4) Don’t underestimate the power of the bulls aka short-covering bears (borrowed from Cobra)
5) Don’t underestimate the power of China
6) During a market rally, avoid zerohedge. During a market decline, okay to check zerohedge
7) Put all kool-aid posters who lack verifiable chart evidence or lack a credible link on IGNOR list
8) Trust the pragmatic wisdom of Cobra
9) This time is not different

Hey Al!
Happy New Year!

I have for you:
1. A timing assay for SLV, which, with the help of various tools, seems to favor an UP-reversal.
2. A ZSL chart for quick swings and intraday trading, which ended up, on Friday, with a bar of an uncertain color.

Paging Cougar, RE: DBV, I see a little conflict here also, take a look at my simple swing 101. I got sell on SPY but not on DBV, DBV still on its last buy.Hmmmmm...

BullBear52x wrote:Paging Cougar, RE: DBV, I see a little conflict here also, take a look at my simple swing 101. I got sell on SPY but not on DBV, DBV still on its last buy.Hmmmmm...

Yes, exactly! Hmm...
BTW, I have something about the Friday trades for you!
Relax and enjoy...

The 2 last hours of trading, on Friday, were quite remarkable.
End of the YEAR!
Many people, including myself, were expecting a significant RAMPO of most indices during the last 60-30 min and into close - possibly, extended 15 min until the options market was also supposed to close. We were thinking that this would happen in the context of a VIX drop, so that the puts that we planed to buy would have been cheap…
Well…Da Boyz did exactly the opposite (as obvious on the chart below) with “moves” in the following sequence:

1. VIX UP, while SPY and QQQ down [at 12:30*]…so far, it makes sense…but then, slowly…

2. ...indices go steadily UP but the VIX stays also UP, so that the puts are still expensive…And we wait…

3. A signal comes in the OPPOSITE direction of what we expected = VIX UP (green square) and indices down, breaking the supportive trend-line (red arrows). So, what to do?…Got to be nimble, because there isn’t much time left…So, I bought 1/3 of the planned positions of puts for both QQQ and SPY…still waiting for the RAMPO to happen on close…But, there were few people who bought at that time ..which made me kind of uncomfortable…

4. The RAMPO never happened! BIG DROP of the indices! At that point, the “hedgies” started to buy…3k, 5k 10k put contracts - all at the ask! They were chasing them like crazy! I tried to buy more puts also, placing orders slightly under the ask…and nothing got filled…Nobody was selling puts! Thus, I ended up with only 1/3 of the planned positions…

…Now, 3 days later, looking again at my trading charts, I am little more suspicious…Da Boyz created a “panic buying “ of puts and of 3x short ETF-s! Why? The “perma-contrarian” in me answers : “Because the whole kabuki was only a trap and the next move will be a short covering rally …” If true, I was lucky not have those orders filled!

===================
Note: *on the chart below, time is MST…where the indices market closes at 14:00 while the VIX and options at 14:15.

Just looking at the action of the leaders in the last five days only:
SPY made its low of the week on Wednesday
VIX confirmed with a higher high on Wednesday
TNX made its LL on Friday
UDN LL Thursday
DBV LL overnight Thursday
Banks LL Wednesday

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =252304559

Not on the above chart but I’ll post these other charts on request:
Wednesday lower lows in IWM, QQQ, DIA, $WLSH, EEM, China ($HXC)
And lower lows Thursday in Germany $DAX, Oil, Copper, Gold
Etc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3989jHX3 ... re=related

Happy New Year Everyone!

Doc Al, I have a copy of Margin Call on my computer - 3gig's. I'm going to try and compress it into a .rar file and then maybe use the free version of "Drop Box". If I can get it under 2 gig's, it's all yours. Otherwise, if you can find another way of getting it from me to you, then I'll be happy to oblige.

Good looking charts up here, and as it's come to be expected, a slightly bearish (cautious) tone. My only resolution for 2012 is for it to be MUCH better than 2011 for me as a trader.

Was a rough year, and I'm very happy that it's over. Congrats to those that made tons of money with the volatility, and goodluck and better trading to those who, like me, had a harder time.

cougar wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:Paging Cougar, RE: DBV, I see a little conflict here also, take a look at my simple swing 101. I got sell on SPY but not on DBV, DBV still on its last buy.Hmmmmm...

Yes, exactly! Hmm...
BTW, I have something about the Friday trades for you!
Relax and enjoy...

The 2 last hours of trading, on Friday, were quite remarkable.
End of the YEAR!
Many people, including myself, were expecting a significant RAMPO of most indices during the last 60-30 min and into close - possibly, extended 15 min until the options market was also supposed to close. We were thinking that this would happen in the context of a VIX drop, so that the puts that we planed to buy would have been cheap…
Well…Da Boyz did exactly the opposite (as obvious on the chart below) with “moves” in the following sequence:

1. VIX UP, while SPY and QQQ down [at 12:30*]…so far, it makes sense…but then, slowly…

2. ...indices go steadily UP but the VIX stays also UP, so that the puts are still expensive…And we wait…

3. A signal comes in the OPPOSITE direction of what we expected = VIX UP (green square) and indices down, breaking the supportive trend-line (red arrows). So, what to do?…Got to be nimble, because there isn’t much time left…So, I bought 1/3 of the planned positions of puts for both QQQ and SPY…still waiting for the RAMPO to happen on close…But, there were few people who bought at that time ..which made me kind of uncomfortable…

4. The RAMPO never happened! BIG DROP of the indices! At that point, the “hedgies” started to buy…3k, 5k 10k put contracts - all at the ask! They were chasing them like crazy! I tried to buy more puts also, placing orders slightly under the ask…and nothing got filled…Nobody was selling puts! Thus, I ended up with only 1/3 of the planned positions…

…Now, 3 days later, looking again at my trading charts, I am little more suspicious…Da Boyz created a “panic buying “ of puts and of 3x short ETF-s! Why? The “perma-contrarian” in me answers : “Because the whole kabuki was only a trap and the next move will be a short covering rally …” If true, I was lucky not have those orders filled!

===================
Note: *on the chart below, time is MST…where the indices market closes at 14:00 while the VIX and options at 14:15.

Good read on Friday, here is my side of the story, top red line is when I will fold. if I got trap here I considered it a fair game Da boyz will do that it's their jobs. last post got to go see you all tomorrow. Thanks everyone for a good discussion.

jarbo456 wrote:Happy New Year Everyone!...Doc Al, I have a copy of Margin Call on my computer - 3gig's. I'm going to try and compress it into a .rar file and then maybe use the free version of "Drop Box". If I can get it under 2 gig's, it's all yours. Otherwise, if you can find another way of getting it from me to you, then I'll be happy to oblige....Good looking charts up here, and as it's come to be expected, a slightly bearish (cautious) tone. My only resolution for 2012 is for it to be MUCH better than 2011 for me as a trader....Was a rough year, and I'm very happy that it's over. Congrats to those that made tons of money with the volatility, and goodluck and better trading to those who, like me, had a harder time.

HI JARBO: Recall last week I asked you how/why eur/usd goes down as European stock ETFs go up then answered myself with “do your own homework.”
Here’s a small bit of homework, a chart of eur/usd compared with key EU stock ETFs.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

The chart above is performance based which some folks hate, so below is simple overlay chart, which shows the same dang thing.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =252468561

Then, Ned Davis Research suggested watching US banks vs germ italy spain banks, so here’s my best version of that at the moment (overlay): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BKX&p ... =252469497

My eyeballs are dying today....plus it’s all greek to me….and I would really value your input…?

Finally a couple of notes:
1) I always read and appreciate your posts, especially on currency pairs and options and etc. etc., even if I don’t acknowledge it every time you post
2) I miss your chatter from the bond floor, but I know it’s proprietary etc
3) Happy New Year

PS: I used KEIZAIs last link to “Margin Call” and watched it last night. THANKS SO MUCH for thinking of me.
PPS: KeiZai thanks.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbej3bEn ... =endscreen