Cobra's Market View

Patterns suggest next week will see a larger fall but do 1 more retest high before that which IMHO will fail. Trade carefully.
My read on earnings estimates so far is it will be bad and that will be center stage beginning next week.

cougar wrote:Good morning, Cobra!

Something about UPRO: The latest 4 high spikes (red circles) were all either in pre-market during the first hour of regular trading ..and followed by corrections.
It looks like Da Boys arte trying to tell the bernank: “Look, we are doing our best to lift it by night with cheap bogus futures trades, but we need more money, because the hedgies and the retailers sell into our up moves….We need help! QE, QE, QE!!!”

"To QE or not to QE, that is the question"

Shakespeare

volume surge, biggest bar, so hopefully a pullback here. I still find very hard to believe the dip was bought again and we close strong again today.

Al_Dente wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:Crazy lines, how could a line be a resistance to our financial? Crazy Crazy

Baron von ChaiseLounge
I miss the old days (last month) when u used to post yr heiniken hibachis
Here’s mine, I even changed the settings to your 5ma just for you. I’m changing it back to my settings any minute, so you better look quick.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =249501314

Yes, beware of the Heiniken. as far as 5dma, why change back when you got the best setting out there it's not the tools it's how you use it.

Buckethead wrote:Patterns suggest next week will see a larger fall but do 1 more retest high before that which IMHO will fail. Trade carefully.
My read on earnings estimates so far is it will be bad and that will be center stage beginning next week.

agree, but only 1 more small up is allowed.

Cobra wrote:volume surge, biggest bar, so hopefully a pullback here. I still find very hard to believe the dip was bought again and we close strong again today.

Up/DN volume were so low it need to relief the pressure.($NYUPV)

ok...i'm getting hits that it's official? france to lose triple A?

lqiantobe wrote:

lqiantobe wrote:Corba~ It's hard for me to tell top or consolidation then breakout(upside). E.g. YGE, can you tell is it near the top?

Corba~ Any comments on my questions?

it's consolidation, not top.

jarbo456 wrote:ok...i'm getting hits that it's official? france to lose triple A?

I know the France gov. know it's done deal when the Finance minister came out last week, saying that French will not work to please the rating agency, they will continue spending so long they can issue their bond.

triangle?

BullBear52x wrote:

Cobra wrote:volume surge, biggest bar, so hopefully a pullback here. I still find very hard to believe the dip was bought again and we close strong again today.

Up/DN volume were so low it need to relief the pressure.($NYUPV)

Yeoooow look what happened to my NYDNV (straight, no ratio, big blue circle, note other incidents when that happened)
while I was busy dickin’ around with Mariah
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

BullBear52x wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:ok...i'm getting hits that it's official? france to lose triple A?

I know the France gov. know it's done deal when the Finance minister came out last week, saying that French will not work to please the rating agency, they will continue spending so long they can issue their bond.

i'm just thinking that if this was known a week or more ago, there was little to no affect in the market. is there yet another rumor/event that's being priced in right now that's keeping this market up?

Cobra wrote:triangle?

not again!

DX: Potential Ending Diagonal + RSI negative divergence

patosv wrote:

Cobra wrote:

costco wrote:

Cobra wrote:I don't know what to say about this market, why people so bullish here?

Hi Cobra. I think it is likely due to high hope of more QE coming from Jan 24-25's Fed meeting. It may have something to do with the recent rally from 1200 to 1290. Otherwise it is hard to imagine the market has power to go up almost 100 points without any good news from Europe. Please read the following CNBC article about this.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45977098

all recent econ news are good, aren't they? So definitely no QE.I don't think market is betting on this.

Hi Cobra, maybe QE its already here in form of the european LTRO...... and if this is the case we may be setting ourself up to more down movement here its a link of a diminished returns of each QE by david rosenberg. It fits well at this juncture http://pragcap.com/the-diminishing-returns-of-qe

Got you thanks. And welcome aboard!

Al_Dente wrote:1min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

PAGING Baron von Carey
Bloomberg turned off
Mariah turned on…. so to speak…
Toooooo nice, thanks Baron

PAGING Taggard, thanks, I cut/pasted that one to read again later
I don’t have a PhD in Psychology, my PhD is in Street Fighting
And I’m fairly certain that I could whop you if I had to (joking, only joking)
“You can't deny laughter. When it comes, it plops down in your favorite chair and stays as long as it wants” [Stephen King, novelist, horror genre]

PS: I like you (and I like Skinner, and I like your “RELAX” etc etc)…. You’re always VERY deep…

Thank you--obviously i like your stuff too. i have training in south pac rim econ and psych-both psycho biology and what most people think of as reg psych(duel major) and spent 30 years in construction and similar work. currently on a good day i train 6 hours all sorts of stuff weights yoga hard form and soft form martial arts absolute mediation and qi and nei gung and even dream stuff--and study diet/supplement/chinese (esp herbs--the chinese are amazing with herbs and needle work) and western medicine (father was a biomed r and d guy) when i get a chance--but that stuff means nothing if al has gun and taggard is not looking. everything is bigger than us--unless we are totally aware (hemingway said "if you are good enough it's all your fault" but that didn't trade that well at the end). i am a slower learner and have made more mistakes than most people i have met--and if i can do anything to speed up learning for any new people on this site i like that.

most of my perspective is based on the idea that my own actions create my problems--since i worked mostly alone for 30 years--this was pretty obvious. the more you are in a group setting the more complicated this stuff gets.

the problem is often i become aware later that i didn't understand why i took the action. in a fully realized intuitive setting--great that is a good thing. but most of the time it is some clueless thing (low bloodsugar or ego) over and over in my life i have discovered the actions i have taken have been either based on absurd beliefs or the past. what's at issue is how we can actually see the present--hence cobra's and (the other al's) 5 min stuff is interesting--the cycles are fast and we get the chance to learn as fast as we can--more feedback shorter interval hopefully more open mind.

(in an amusing book "dancing with lions" by trader x (or the art of the trade by jankovsky) the point is made that "whatever you believe will kill you". this statement is intended to widely address all trade beliefs--but the author really trashes all technical trading (it's really fun book) i would define this as "any took or concept about market action by definition is a conceptual overlay. it is our idea about what the market is NOT THE MARKET. as such it will inevitably lead to problems at least at certain times (cobra has noted that 2 step moves down seem to be extinct for example--yet in general they work very nicely--perhaps they are only endangered species and will come back if tended to carefully). we may allow ourselves to use technicals--if we never forget that we reduce our awareness of the actual action to the degree we place it in a conceptual box.

good luck with your trades

one minute volume spike

jarbo456 wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:ok...i'm getting hits that it's official? france to lose triple A?

I know the France gov. know it's done deal when the Finance minister came out last week, saying that French will not work to please the rating agency, they will continue spending so long they can issue their bond.

i'm just thinking that if this was known a week or more ago, there was little to no affect in the market. is there yet another rumor/event that's being priced in right now that's keeping this market up?

it's half full or half empty deal, no end to the speculation, for me QE or no QE they are in the chart if I nimble enough I should be able to swim on both ends.

aa+ is still good rating per french fin min

Cobra wrote:

lqiantobe wrote:

lqiantobe wrote:Corba~ It's hard for me to tell top or consolidation then breakout(upside). E.g. YGE, can you tell is it near the top?

Corba~ Any comments on my questions?

it's consolidation, not top.

How to tell?