Cobra's Market View

cougar and the weekend crew

Anyone can start a new thread by clicking on the "New Topic" button. I did it so please...post away.

Have a nice weekend.


BTW... http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/moving.html

Edit:

Under construction http://www.99ercharts.com/

Silver, stepped down out of rising wedge:

Hello weekenders

My Percentage Price Oscillator (top panel) on $CPCE is in the top zone. The chart in the middle panel is an inverted $CPCE smoothed by a 5ma, with SPY purple bars behind.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPCE& ... =215024151

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mitLcbH ... re=related

A look at QQQ
$NAMO has a different “benchmark” than $NYMO.
While $NYMO can top out near 80-ish, $NAMO often tops out at about 65-ish. Both were nearing their top zones, and usually when they reach their tops they pullback below 80/65 respectively, which triggers the sell signal.
Yesterday they both pulled back (NAMO backed off to 31, NYMO - not on this chart - backed off to 26) before first reaching their expected tops, but hey, we seldom get absolutely “perfect” signals (note how NYMO did the same early pullback at the mid-September high, see pink circles).
The top may be in, or we could get a bouncing top like the one seen here during 17 Oct thru 27 Oct (few days dip, few days rally, few days dip again, drive u nuts until a “final” top).
I’m not being cagey here, I’m just saying that unfortunately, tops aren’t always as clean and pretty as we’d like them to be.

Also, QQQ volatility is now near top-ish territory, it could go further. The “sell” signal is usually triggered when it starts back down/up (IMHO).
NOTE: the dark green line is volatility INVERTED ($ONE:$VXN) for ease of viewing only.
Also, you have all seen the daily reversal candlesticks.
And my softie CCI indicator can and often does zigzag around its overbought zone.

All the top/near top and overbought signs are hard to ignore…so just wear protection…you know…
Yes, the selloff yesterday was quite NASTY, but so were a couple of recent selloffs that the short-covering-bears and dip-buyers cured within a day or so.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p= ... =250153688

PS: Real estate won’t allow me to cram the Bullish Percents into that QQQ chart. But as you know, BP is not yet overbought on the nasdaq.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCRZZC-D ... re=related

Last bunch of articles on indexes, VIX, Oil, and gold have some highlights based on where we currently are in the market.

http://goo.gl/nZPuo

I show that one or both the 10yr treasurys $UST and the 30s $USB made new highs.
This is tough to verify because stockcharts is not fond of accuracy in bond quoting, and they don’t like to provide OHLC or candles on their daily bond charts. In any case, both are at double top resistance. Please chirp if u can verify, in the interim, here’s my weekly.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST&p ... =247550145

Great, in a perfect world, when bonds make highs, we look for SPX to confirm by making fresh lows. Well then….. not a chance….surely either bonds or stocks will “realign” soon.

Let’s move along quickly then to the U.S. Dollar $USD where we will find confirmation, no?
Here’s the daily showing $USD made a new high. Great then we look to SPX to confirm by making new lows…. mmmm…..surely either the dollar or stocks must “realign” soon…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p ... =253833460

So much for “perfect”, welcome to the world of persistent bearish divergences…

PAGING Mr. Bachnut:
Here’s the auto-refreshed page on the EU debt crisis, updated with yesterday’s rating downgrades (note the debt/gdp ratios)
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/busi ... &emc=tha25

And here are the all-on-one-page EU yields (also auto-updated)
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/F/09 ... PORT2.html#

And here’s my question: isn’t all of this “baked into” the $TED spread easing, or at least it should be baked-in by Tuesday, no?
PS: As you know, historically 0.50 is the “all clear” number on TED, we’re not quite there yet….

Finally, glance at the growing divergence between EU banks and US Banks, specifically since 19 Dec, and please tell me why?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BKX&p ... =252469497

Enough work for now, it’s Saturday night and I’m going dancing
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rf55gHK4 ... re=related

Lets pretend that we hit the top and are now 1-2-3 reversal pattern once again formed, to be or not to be should be clearly tells.price range for the initial down trend will be in between 128-129ish.Fib extensions pointing to 126ish coincided with first consolidation area. where I marked lower high (LH) are the consolidation zone, I can see it clearly now the first two were gaping up to invalidate the weakness, however the last didn't do so but gaped down instead. Price level and chart pattern suggest the reversal process was starting last Friday, but again if 129.67 got taken out it will invalidate the weakness once again, I will have wait for another set up.Here I combined my fav MA and MA ribbons, no doubt the reversal has started.GLTA

BARON VON BARON
Now that it took you only two weeks to get all “expert” at stockcharts, play with their cycle tools,
they’re not fib, but they’re fun, and they sorta reinforce your view.
These are keyed off the Oct low.
Then “de-trend” your price oscillator to identify a 34-36 day cycle (spy oct low to late nov low cycle was about 36 days, but fib is 34 …so…)
If u smooth using yr fav 5ma u can plot the middle of the ma, maybe reducing the noise.
Log scale.
Oy, I can’t wait till u finally make it over to freestockcharts…you’ll KILL ‘em over there…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =253868913

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9uFWZqM ... ure=relmfu

[edit: I ALWAYS love your charts, some of them I even kiss on the LHLH.
Just don’t forget: “Never underestimate the power of the …..” mmmmmmm
Oh nevermind, I forgot already….]

Hi all,

therefore, we are now 13 days into the New Year and the SP 500 is up all of 32 points. All of those net points have come during overnight futures trading, with little to no gains during real time cash trading. Volume is also pretty soft for a bull move. I am still in the "show me the money" mode before I can jump on the bull's train.
It's a very crowded train too, not many seats left. In back to back AAII surveys we have 49% bulls and 17% Bears, historically a very high ratio seen near tops. In the Investment Advisor surveys we are running 50-51% Bulls and 29-30% Bears, also high.

What I need to see is some serious volume buying kicking in and a solid push on the DAX, NYSE, and SP 500 above all the targets (I don´t think it will happend)to throw in the topping towel. Until then, I will continue to be cautious. (40% short without longs)

Next week there will be tons of earnings reports and volume should return too. So firstly let´s look on the XLF - Gap up with an evening star and overbought nice one before earnings

Second one my favorite near the tops Tvix - Looking like it's heating up with bullish wedge and impressive volume, so beware of BEARS!!!
We see he is fast asleep, resting comfortably around the $24 price range. But a day or two before Halloween last fall, when the S&P 500 daily cycle last topped, poor TVIX jumped 67.5% in two days!! and right now it kinda looks like some investors are starting to nudge him and see if he would like to wake up now. I just don´t know if the VIX wants to fill the gap around 18 any ideas?

and Israel is starting game with serious loses.....http://www.forexpros.com/markets/israel

Here’s my VIX daily
Last two times she reached the bolinger centerline the “bulls” turned her back (green arrows).
As Cobra might say: third time is the charm?
Earnings season and various EU rumors should help the bulls/bears decide
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p ... =240742401

Here’s all volatility, daily.
EEMV is weird but she’s new, I inverted her until I can understand what she’s talking about.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p= ... =242445486

PS: Thanks KeiZai, I can’t get enough of your Einstein, or your charts. Sorry, my VIX chart is redundant, it looks quite like yours, I just wanted to highlight the arrows at the centerline…we’ll soon find out if the centerline can hold as resistance or not…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FP7Ry9Mf ... re=related

PS: Cobra has a VIX ratio chart that he’s been analyzing in his overnight outlooks lately….. much more revealing than these.

Thanks AL , I really appreciate your work

I have an insider information from employee at the Irish mint that they have started printing Punts...maybe some members will be out soon :/ problems in Europe are not solved yet thats why I don´t trust bulls for now...just be ready if this will be true! (I´m giving to this info rate of 80%)

US$

99er wrote:cougar and the weekend crew

Anyone can start a new thread by clicking on the "New Topic" button. I did it so please...post away.

Have a nice weekend.


BTW... http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/moving.html

Thanks 99er!
I understand that you are “moving”… Does that mean that you’ll stop posting your inspired and inspiring charts? I can only imagine that the cause is the way in which your comments were attacked by some turkeys. Do not let those, gifted with the sense humor of a mesothelioma commercial, disturb you! I also noticed that, lately, many local posts combined an out of place aggressiveness with a liberal display of stupidity enhanced by ignorance.

So, what can we do ? Anybody who is willing to spit out 10 bucks a month is entitled to post any kind of his or her views here…On the other hand, besides Cobra who is so busy in predicting constantly all the market moves, the rest of us should reply to disturbing and offensive remarks made by the above-mentioned turkeys. I was also too tolerant in the past, but respecting the “rights” of such characters was a mistake. In the limit of my available time, this will change and, believe me, I know what to do! After all, what do I have to lose? Hopefully, this might change your mind and you will keep contributing here!

I´m attaching my sign under the cougar post, keep posting 99er I like folks like you with the sense of humor (cartoons and comments) not a kids playing with the demo account and writing bullshits because they have done their homework to school...keep it goin´!!

99er, it's an asset to have you around.
I come to this forum mostly to look at your charts, love your cartoons, sense of humor.
Like cougar said, never mind some turkeys.
I hope that you'll change your mind!

Another signal to be cautious in these days (sorry for too many posts )

Baltic Dry Index
"Dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food, the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production. The BDI is termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity."

GOLD
Note the mixed message (?) offered by the gold ratio charts.
Inflation expectations appear to be easing a bit (?)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD: ... =253890589

As you all know, the relationship between the U.S. dollar and gold is contracyclical, hence the gold/dollar ratio has been a decent indicator in the past.
The other ratios measure inflation/inflation expectations.
Traditionally, if gold or oil get too far above these ratios, then the excess in price is arguably deemed the bubble part of the gold or oil price.
Historically, when gold rallied substantially, relative to commodities, we would “usually” expect commodities to force a correction in gold.
But the commodities basket is still relatively strong here, while the other inflation ratios are slipping a bit, some for the first time since 2009…..
Any opposing views please, pretty please??

99er, I always appreciate your charts, and I hope you will be able to continue posting them.

KeiZai: I’d like to see you post much MORE, plus I need to keep re-reading your quote. BTW some of the smart guys (I am NOT in that group) chart China adjacent/overlaid with Baltic, to confirm/deny the chatter about China inflation/housing/slowdown etc etc…..I gave up on Baltic when it fell asleep in late 2010, I recall some excuse like they had to retool/replace all the barges, but lately it’s back on my radar…thanks for posting that one.

Everyone is leaving just because some turkey? well, I hope I am not that turkey

Thanks Dr. Al for a kind word of my charts, I like your charts and everyone who took their gracious time to post here. I hope my charts analysis is consistently bad enough for contrarian indicator

since we mentioned VIX why not looking at all of them. per all 4 major volatility indexes, the divergence is here how deep the pull back that remain to be seen, but for now here is what they look like. enjoy....