Cobra's Market View

here’s my prob:
lately the bulls need bull-volume FOUR TIMES bear volume for a good spike (top panel)
we don’t have that yet … yet caveat: this is not foolproof because sometimes stockcharts screws up the volume

Calm before the storm

SPY 5. All's quiet. "Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse."

Price action: Looking back on previous Monday gap, it is clear it failed to hold up twice, based on auction theory, 3520 should be tested then will see the reaction from there.

zh: In recent weeks we have read one report after another from JPM quants who make the false claim that hedge funds are barely invested in the market and have lots of dry powder…
We now hope to bring these lies to an end once and for all, for the simple reason that as of this moment [today], hedge funds have never been more long stocks.
Confirming this, Goldman's Hedge Fund VIP basket, which tracks the most popular hedge fund long positions, has outperformed the SPX by 20% points YTD (+32% vs. +12%). And while it still lags the Nasdaq 100, the basket is now on pace for its strongest annual excess return vs. the S&P 500 on record.
zh: there are no shorts left

Nothing is perfect.
Here’s my take on the INTRADAY NYAD.
As long as NYAD is in the grey zone (bounded roughly between +/- 750), the market farts around (indecision, choppy, sideways, or what Cobra might call “consolidation”].
When it moves above/below that, the intraday is trying to attempt a trend.
If SPX moves up and the AD stays in the grey zone, the SPX up won’t hold (like 11/11). And conversely on the downside.
Moral of the story: It’s usually best to trade WITH the NYAD on your side.
[Alternative interpretations are welcomed]

Testing range high, key time.

SPX Fib, 61.8% will not hold up this time.

SPY 5. Sharp move down.

IS THE MEDIA EVEN COVERING THIS PRESSER? FEW MINUTES AGO.
I have XLV and XPH on watch, which is the reason I’m asking. [Is he reducing drug prices or not; XPH]
Donald Trump has accused Pfizer and Moderna of working to stop his re-election by delaying their vaccines.
“Big Pharma ran millions of dollars of negative advertisements against me during the campaign...” said Mr Trump.

Next 38.2% will not hold up either.

yesterday they use last 5 minutes to pump up, today will not work, fool me once .........ya no?

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Monday looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377