Cobra's Market View

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No idea up or down from here.

Small gap down, likely it's just a range day.

ES daily. Pushing down beneath the EMA 20. Uh oh. Might make BB52x happy. Ha ha

Me no care. Long. Short. Whatever. Ready for some daytrades and scalps.

SPY 15. Moving down before the open.

People, People:
TOO MANY LOWS
(as of yesterday's close)

SPY 5. The market has not decided what it wants to do, yet.

sell day, same playbook, up or down market is okay for me as long as there is trend to be had. chase down or sell rip setup, nothing atm.

SPY 1. Slow train to nowhere. The big guns are silent so far.

Nomura’s McElligott notes this morning that the much-hyped “pension quarter-end rebalancing” flows are evidencing themselves in the market (short SPX, long TLT or TY).
[Also, you may also recall Cobra’s note last week for TLT up).

McElligott: Dealers “short Gamma” vs spot in SPX (Gamma vs Spot, flips at 3921.09), while Delta vs spot is now sitting directly on the “neutral / flip” line at 3880.57)...
But it is still the cumulative Nasdaq (QQQ) options positioning dynamic which remains so fragile and thus, under the most duress.

zh: as we previously noted, there is another reason why call-buying is fizzling out: Daytraders are learning and adapting, and instead of amplifying their returns with leverage (call-buying overlays), they are hedging their positions... which removes one more marginal enabler of the meltup.
And unless Powell and his pals accelerate the buying once more, we suspect the markets will really throw a tantrum.

I am chasing down now. lets go bears!

Short internals
SHORTS

AAPL. An AAPL a day.

QQQ. Making a run.

50DMA playing a support atm. intraday rips will be sold anyways.

Oh mama, smalls are indeed testing that 100% retracement of the March 5 low.
Bulls hope that it holds and maybe gives us a double bottom
Bears are happy
Four hour chart

Same time frame
SPX has the 50% retracement in view
with no positive momentum divergence yet

and that would be just a 2-push down with the potential for a bounce and a third leg down ... or not
SPX

AAPL 1 minute and SPY 5 minutes. Pretty quiet, although I found a handful of plays, ES, AAPL. Taking a break. Back later ...

It's a morning hourly hollow red.