The NYMO cycle remains down though I think the cycle low is in.
It popped above zero at the open this morning but has since slipped below.
The surge over the last few days is either a corrective move to the zero line or the start of a new up cycle.
Bulls need to get two closes above zero to confirm up.
Price appears to have completed its first test of the 200 MA.
Bulls want to hold the average and the January low.
Bears want a failure on the next test.
As the lower keltner band was tagged, bears have the bias ahead.
The middle keltner band lies above and may be a target for this move.
In a strange change, there have been few gaps made this year.
At the moment, there is just one above. The downdraft has closed a bunch of stranded down gaps from last year.
I am neutral holding short runners in SPX and R2K that are fully offset by equivalent longs.
We had a positive price divergence last week with price holding up while NYMO made lower lows.
This divergence inclined me to try a hedge for a bounce.
There was a down P-Bar lurking that I used to put on the hedges Friday.
My runners have breakeven stops, and I plan to put profit stops on the hedges soon.
I usually outsmart myself when I pull stunts like this, but it will pay this time around.