02/14/2022 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Consolidation (the last 4 bars including the current bar) so bias is down.

Gap down below the Friday's low so likely it'd be a trend day either up or down. Friday, bears were too stretched so probably will be a rebound first upon open.

[Al_Dente]

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on CNBC on Monday reiterated he'd like to see rates rise by 100 basis points by July. "Our credibility is on the line here," Bullard added, referring to the need to deal with escalating inflation. [CNBC]

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:00 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/02 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

"New York Fed Concludes Underlying Inflation Is Only 4.6%
"With the CPI a hot 7.5%, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) offers another alternate measure to laugh at.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/new-york ... s-only-4-6

[Trades w 2 Cats]

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on CNBC on Monday reiterated he'd like to see rates rise by 100 basis points by July. "Our credibility is on the line here," Bullard added, referring to the need to deal with escalating inflation. [CNBC]

So now repeating the company Bullitt points, no more emergency immediate rate hike.

[JFR]

ES daily. Moving further down beneath support.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes. Eyes on S1.

[JFR]

SPY 15. Trying to hang on to the EMA 20.

[JFR]

ES five minutes. Moving from a tight base in the early morning, to a wider base. At a well-traveled support level.

[Cobra]

It's a morning hourly hollow red

[Cobra]

A rebound should be due, then we'll see.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Daily bars with weekly volume profile. Makes it really clear where support resistance are sitting.

[Mr. BachNut]

The NYMO cycle remains unclear.
We continue to coil around the zero line.
However, this morning we are making a lower low after making a higher high.
So, a down cycle may have begun.

Pricewise, we have two gaps above. None below.
The nearest one missed closing on Thursday by half a point. Treacherous...
Friday's close was below the 200MA, which is bad. Another test has begun.
Bears want to break the January low, which would be ugly, and bulls want to break the February high.
Between Russian invasions, Fed meetings and chatter, OPEX and everything else going on, I couldn't be more clueless as to what will happen.

I remain long the R2K with one profit unit scaled. Friday was unpleasant, but this index isn't exactly crumbling... yet.
I remain neutral the SPX holding short and long.
Short setups are percolating for both contracts. So, action ahead could have me reverse the R2K position and unhedge the SPX position.

[JFR]

BTI. PM. "Call for Philip Morris." -- old advertisement. Gambling. Drinking. Smoking. The Vice stocks in hard times. Not recommendations. Ha ha.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:10 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/02 ... ay-update/

[JFR]

ES five minutes. Bounce up off support. Sitting on the EMA 20.

[Al_Dente]

OIL
It was the second time in three weeks that portfolio managers and hedge funds sold petroleum, and the sales were the largest since the end of last November.
Funds reduced bullish positions by 14 million barrels last week, while adding 14 million barrels of new bearish ones, confirming a much more cautious outlook on further price gains.
... Portfolio managers are still bullish on the outlook for oil prices
[Reuters via zh]
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge ... -intensify

[Al_Dente]

OIL 60m
[ps: Cobra has been warning us]

[JFR]

Alternatives. 60 minutes. Hard times. Strange times. DBC flat, but I am still holding. IAU flat, but I am still holding. IYR, SPYG, SPYV down, not short, not long. TLT schizo, not holding. USO not holding. UUP up, but not holding. Just in my opinion.