02/18/2022 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Double bottom or not, wait and see.

Small gap up, within the yesterday's range so likely it's just a range day.

[JFR]

SPY 15. A down day Thursday. Now testing the low.

[JFR]

ES daily. 6 days in this base, at the low end, following 9 days in a slightly higher base. A doji so far today.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes. Ups and downs. Larger base. Smaller base. Now hemmed in by the Pivot and a support level.

[JFR]

ES five minutes. Testing the support level. Huge resistance overhead.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:08 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/02 ... ay-update/

[Mr. BachNut]

NYMO is still coiling about the zero line.
If I were dogmatic about the model, I would be flipping the cycle status every few days.
The chart labeling is left as if we are in an up cycle until there is more clarity.
NYMO is looking a bit perky this morning, but let's see how things close on this OPEX day.
Bottom line is that we are in some kind of consolidation to be followed by a continuation. Could be up or down.

Price remains soft and under the 200 MA.
Bands and short averages are trending down.
We have three open gaps above, which could serve as targets if things can rally.
My R2K chart looks like a bear flag though.
I have no clue what will happen, and I am not sure Mr. Market does either...

I remain long the R2K and neutral short and long the SPX.
I have done nothing, which perhaps has helped me avoid getting chopped up and whipsawed.
Nonetheless my R2K P&L is yoyoing accordingly. Not an easy time to swing...
The R2K position may get a jam stop soon.

[te_fern]

The ST bullish idea on the Semi's didn't work, though we now have a double bottom. Looking to see if we rally from here....

[Cobra]

Testing day low, let's see whether bulls can make a double bottom here. Decisive breakdown would mean measured move down and perhaps a downtrend day.

[te_fern]

May nibble down here on the higher low and double bottom. Won't hold long due to not being very bullish.....

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:18 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/02 ... ay-update/

[te_fern]

SOXL is back to the bottom, took a small loss....

[te_fern]

If I buy a short ETF, this sell off will end....LOL!!

[Al_Dente]

Fern, sorry I don't have the source for this bit of trading wisdom:
"Most people lose money buying the tops and selling the bottoms, so do the opposite.
No one knows which bounce will be the real bounce. Don't guess, treat every bounce as it were the real deal until proven otherwise.
Buy the bounce, start small, get in early, keep a nearby stop, and only add to a trade that is working... Move your stops up...

[Al_Dente]

2/17 The DoJ issues "dozens" of subpoenas and raids short seller offices
including the famous Muddy Waters and Citron Research
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/02/ ... -whats-up/

[te_fern]

Fern, sorry I don't have the source for this bit of trading wisdom:
"Most people lose money buying the tops and selling the bottoms, so do the opposite.
No one knows which bounce will be the real bounce. Don't guess, treat every bounce as it were the real deal until proven otherwise.
Buy the bounce, start small, get in early, keep a nearby stop, and only add to a trade that is working... Move your stops up...

Thanks! Good advice!

[Cobra]

Falling wedge breakout, maybe the low was in for today. Usually there should be a revisit of the day low before the actual reversal up though.

[Al_Dente]

Why the cardinal rule in investing is DON'T AVERAGE DOWN:
(Recall the math: If your stock is down -50% from your purchase price, it must go up 100% for you to breakeven).

"I've been averaging down" (Cathie Wood on CNBC, 2/17)

ROKU is currently the #3 weighting in Wood's flagship ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK) and Ark owns 4.24% of the company.
This morning, DKNG, which Wood has been buying "the dip" in since about $48 per share, fell 15% pre-market to $18.75 per share, on poor earnings. DraftKings is the #15 weighting in Wood's ARKK Fund

There is now a short Innovation ETF, symbol SARK, which provides daily 1x inverse exposure to Cathie's ARKK.
"SARK is not a buy-and-hold investment, and should not be expected to provide index leverage return greater than a one day period."

[JFR]

ABG. HQ in Duluth, Georgia.

Once again, not a recommendation. But I like it, and will take a closer look for next week.

Asbury Automotive Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an automotive retailer in the United States. It offers a range of automotive products and services, including new and used vehicles; and vehicle repair and maintenance services, replacement parts, and collision repair services. The company also provides finance and insurance products, including arranging vehicle financing through third parties; and aftermarket products, such as extended service contracts, guaranteed asset protection debt cancellation, prepaid maintenance, and credit life and disability insurance. As of December 31, 2020, the company owned and operated 112 new vehicle franchises representing 31 brands of automobiles at 91 dealership locations; and 25 collision centers in the United States. Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia. -- Yahoo Finance

[JFR]

CSCO. HD. A couple of Dow stocks making headway today.