Cobra's Market View

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Lower high or not, wait and see. The rebound overnight has been strong though.

Gap down but within the Friday's range so likely it's just a range day.

It's a morning hourly hollow red.

The NYMO cycle is DOWN.
We have a nasty saw tooth pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

Pricewise, we have three gaps above and none below other than stranded gaps from last year.
The 200MA, middle keltner band and a declining tops line are all converging around SPX 4450-4500.
As we now have a failed test of the 200MA, this area may serve as resistance going forward.

I am flat. My short runners were profit/breakeven stopped in Friday's rally.
I am going to stop trading this NYMO model for awhile here.
High volatility and high uncertainty event flow appears to be moving price beyond the statistical tolerances of the setups.
Follow-through trades in a noisy, volatile trend can get chopped up. I think shorter time frame, support/resistance entries may be more suitable to this environment.
We shall see.

A tag of the two year moving average, perhaps around SPX 4000, is looking more plausible than it used to.

Need decisively break the EMA20 to confirm double bottom.

It occurs to me that I never pointed out that this RSI divergence also seems applicable to the NASDAQ.
We almost got the tag last week. Unfinished business?...

SPY daily. Inside bar so far. Just above support at 430.

ES 60 minutes. It has moved above the Pivot.

SPY 15. Gap down, almost filled. Pbar at 0800. Eyes on the previous close above. Sitting on an older Pivot.

ES five minutes. Trying to break out.

SPY 15. Reached the previous close. Pbar target hit.

Gap filled. this type of pattern never hold up but to retest the morning high. but since we are in the inside day kind of trade it is a little tricky to predict.

i am selling to test that theory and also from top to bottom 38.2% mark.

Alternatives. IAU, IYR, SPYG and SPYV are having second thoughts about their original direction. Seems like a switch from risk off to risk on.

Both $VIX and $VVIX indicates fearful or down trend to continue.

The pullback probably will be bought. The blue line above may not hold another test.

Impressive H&S defense. a retest on the neck line next time (in few days to come) will crash this market. so, it is very important to note. if it will it will be in a day or two.

NOC. Defense. Helluva break out. Profiting from war. Nah. Armaments are needed too in this world.

JFR wrote:NOC. Defense. Helluva break out. Profiting from war. Nah. Armaments are needed too in this world.

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