04/03/2012 Live Update

[uempel]

The 60 min chart is kind of wobbly - the signal can be anywhere between 13:00 pm and 14:00 pm

[theRASPYone]

THROW BACK CHART left by Ryshab on DEC Mon 19th

Amazing chart from the past. Could something so complicated like the market really be so simple?
Here is some Bull porn that should of been followed back in December.
I failed to partake in this rally and am sitting on the sidelines kicking myself, which means we've probably got more UP to go.
I would love to see this chart touched up to current status if you happen to get this request ryshab. Thanks.

[johnnywa]

Looks like Europe holding us down,maybe up after Europe closes

[Denali92]

The 60 min chart is kind of wobbly - the signal can be anywhere between 13:00 pm and 14:00 pm

11.png

14:00pm is the FOMC minutes..... so there is your catalyst...

-D

[TraderGirl]

Apple: sometimes the candle is there and sometimes it's missing... F-ing TD ameritrade...

Anyways, if you draw a trend line from the bottom of that candle to where we are now, it has acted as a support, and now resistance line (for now that is)...

[Al_Dente]

Those are squeeze sticks on SDS 5min
Resistance intraday 14.95

[Cobra]

key time, bulls better pray this is a double bottom.

[Cobra]

possible target, not sure.

[TraderGirl]

Apple 20 year chart, up against resistance....

[SWalsh]

So we don't get to serious

04-03-2012 07;06;22AM.jpg

Damn, that's good!

Barring a major unforeseen event (a Black Swan?) this market goes ONLY where the government allows it to go. And it is not lost on the people of other nations that their debt crisis was our banker's gains. I think the book about Greece's destruction by Goldman Sachs is entitled, "Vulture's Paradise".

If anyone wants to kill some time during all this fun, read Solzhenitsyn's 1978 address to Harvard, where he predicted we would become an immoral nation, which just happens to be what the KGB worked on. No one has gone to jail for "The Rape of a Nation" and some profits nicely still:
http://www.columbia.edu/cu/augustine/ar ... d1978.html

[Al_Dente]

According to al brooks
SDS big green bar at 11:30ET on 5min
With no tails (shaved) means bull from opening minute to closing minute of the bar (bull SDS=bear SPY)
Just pierced resist, fresh hi
It MUST hold and MUST better that hi for bears

[uempel]

The 60 min chart is kind of wobbly - the signal can be anywhere between 13:00 pm and 14:00 pm

11.png

14:00pm is the FOMC minutes..... so there is your catalyst...

-D

My catalyst? SPX catalyst

[noob]

possible target, not sure.

Cobra, consolidate here means? Thanks.

[TraderGirl]

spx??

[BullBear52x]

Sell

[taggard]

THROW BACK CHART left by Ryshab on DEC Mon 19th

Amazing chart from the past. Could something so complicated like the market really be so simple?
Here is some Bull porn that should of been followed back in December.
I failed to partake in this rally and am sitting on the sidelines kicking myself, which means we've probably got more UP to go.
I would love to see this chart touched up to current status if you happen to get this request ryshab. Thanks.

ok i'll byte. Is the market simple or it it complex? much of this has to do with the eye of the observer. in any given time frame and and on any given chart the market is either in a range or a trend. That is fairly simple to define. If this is so what makes the market complex and difficult? Mostly our perception of the event--far more than the event itself.

For example. "I failed to partake in this rally and am sitting on the sidelines kicking myself, which means we've probably got more UP to go." i read this a 3 different ideas. (1) i failed to partake in the rally. (this is in the past and not all that useful for taking action now) (2) am sitting on the sidelines kicking myself. (present tense--very emotional. "kicking myself" will rarely yield better results. and while sitting on the sidelines may not seem like a cute move like discovering a unified field theory--what if the market over the next 2 years goes to 700-500 spx area? then having capital is going to seem pretty sharp.) "which means we probably got more to go up" (2) this seems mostly emotional--but also maybe actionable. if i feel this way why not risk 1-3% of capital and test the idea ideally on a dip like the last few days?

"because it's risky since we are up so far". true and odds are there is a correction--but we are up to 3 months of people saying this every day too. The hardest part and what makes trading seem complex is the idea that we cannot control the future. Traders if pushed will (if they have experience) admit that every time you put a trade on there is no clear ending. but this doesn't keep them from predicting market action in time and price. This is an effort to be in control of the trade which often assures we are not in control. Stats work--until they don't. It's very hard to admit that in fact any system is likely to fail 10-20% of the time even if human error is minimized.

so is the market simple or is it complex--is mostly the perception of the trader. if you are sitting on 100 million and put 100k into this last move up "just for fun" and because "you never know" the stress is low and the complexity is low. if it is a do or die call the stress is high and the complexity high.

i write this in serious hopes of helping others avoid my past stupidities--forget to the extent you can the idea of forecasting action--and focus on controlled risk. cougar once noted to me that he adds small longs in trends and extended trends--in an effort to get over this idea of holding a trend being hard or risky. and generally this is also a good way to change your mind and participate. you don't just swing 180 degrees but instead scale in a bit despite the fact that you "don't like the trade". then see what happens--if a trade like this works--it can (if considered) change your whole outlook on trading as much or more as that 10x trade did. the smarter you are the easier it is to fool yourself--so if you are good enough to call the market say 3x--and keep doubling up--you can count on being broke on the 4th move.

so if the market is in a trend it's in a trend--when that changes you will notice it. if the trend is "mature" you can certainly cut your position size--but there is no reason to assume that what does exist doesn't (until such time as it doesn't). i know guys out there are killing it and they figure it's easy--and i know guys out there suffering trying to get predictions exact are saying it's complex. Whatever truth there is--is someplace in-between these points. right around the area of one's personal perception of the action--not in any absolute sense. the only absolute thing i know of is price action in a given time frame. the rest is largely conceptual in nature--it can be coincident or causal--but most of the time we just don't know--if we can admit that to start with--life is a lot easier--because like it or not--both the universe and the markets are larger than us sowhatagoonado?

thanks good luck to all

[Cobra]

possible target, not sure.

Cobra, consolidate here means? Thanks.

wait.

[johnnywa]

spx??

Tradegirl,did you not have a turndate today? Should we see low today?

[BullBear52x]

SPX, sell.

[Al_Dente]

Note SLV
SLV may/might squeeze if she can better that 32.14 resist hi
Stops might be just above that and may/might be taken out there
And that is a “with trend” trade
And intraday
And kool-aid