07/30/2022 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 2 weeks in a row, the next week has 55% chances to close up, 75% chances to make a higher high. So still some up rooms the next week at least.

[te_fern]

Over the weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

[JFR]

SPY daily. PnF.

Long term up. Mid term down. Short term up. In my opinion.

A couple of up boxes added today. Price is sneaking up the ladder.

[JFR]

SPY daily. Ya gotta be long, in my opinion. But, it is best to do it intraday. Hold overnight? Go to the casino.

[marcueus2]

SPY daily. Ya gotta be long, in my opinion. But, it is best to do it intraday. Hold overnight? Go to the casino.

2022-07-29_23-45-16.png

Why so ? Market is weak Check march rally, than it was 500 points in 11 trading days(now just 420 in 12 days). Whats more as Cobra is uber bulish now so monday we should get reversal and longer term we go under 3635. Classical bear market rally so far

[JFR]

SPY daily. Ya gotta be long, in my opinion. But, it is best to do it intraday. Hold overnight? Go to the casino.

2022-07-29_23-45-16.png

Why so ? Market is weak Check march rally, than it was 500 points in 11 trading days(now just 420 in 12 days). Whats more as Cobra is uber bulish now so monday we should get reversal and longer term we go under 3635. Classical bear market rally so far

Long. But play it intraday, as a bias.

Just repeating what I said above. People can see things differently.

[Al_Dente]

August is amongst the worst months of the year.
https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/6904 ... since-1988

The first trading day of August ranked worst among other First Trading Days in the 2022 Almanac.
https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/6911 ... est-of-all

THE "TYPICAL" AUGUST
https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/6909 ... epid-month

SEASONALITY
https://charts.equityclock.com/sp-500-i ... onal-chart

[QED]

.
I have been watching "The Duran" for a very long time as they engage in Intelligent and interesting conversations ...

Here is today’s episode:
Xi to Biden, 'You are playing with fire,' as tensions over Pelosi's Taiwan trip escalates
https://rumble.com/v1e5vkl-xi-to-biden- ... trip-.html

Here is a link to one of the platforms that you can watch The Duran channel on:
https://rumble.com/c/theduran

Alex and Alexander each have their own channel with their own commentary …

Here is a link to one of the platforms that you can watch Alex Christoforou:
https://odysee.com/@alexchristoforou:7

Here is a link to one of the platforms that you can watch Alexander Mercouris:
https://www.bitchute.com/alexandermercouris

.

[jademann]

Don't fight the FED. They claim to be serious about 9.1% inflation. If housing costs are included inflation is 12%. Europe is already paying 500% more for natural gas.
This is not a bottom. Interest rates should already be 3% higher by now.

[koolblue]

on fridays post i showed the relationships for shortterm top possible at 4144. there are some interesting relationships slightly higher also

[te_fern]

Thank you koolblue, appreciate your updates and charts!!

[Trades w 2 Cats]

According to the numbers there is a wall of calls at 4,200. So upside is capped until op ex. Wall of puts at (if I remember correctly) 3,800. Behind Zerohedge paywall (which I am too cheep to breach) full text from the two major bears on wall street. But just the headlines make it clear that Wilson and Harknett are not ready to call a bottom.

Look at Apple. We read a while back that Cook was doing the very unusual thing of putting phones on sale in China. It worked, he showed a great quarter. What is his next act to spark sales as China faces a huge financial crisis?

American consumer is tapped out, numbers show that. Euro zone is probably much worse. Lesser developed world is having riots over food. Car and housing sales levels are plunging in the US. ATT says people aren't paying their phone bill but hey Apple is doing fine selling aspirational merchandise. At Best Buy and Costco. Yea, right. They made a movie about those people called "Clueless".

Counting all US ports approaching 100 containerships waiting to unload. The truth is Wal Mart and Target saying they can not move stuff and the warehouses are full. What we are seeing is yet another bear market rally cause the big boys can squeeze the hedge funds and shake them down for their lunch money. I totally agree, go along for the ride while it is in action but don't over stay your welcome because the next big move is down. As Cobra and many others have said these bear markets are hard because of the rallys. But boy are they fun when you get the direction right.

It doesn't begin to be over until the Fed throws in the towel and even then new cheep money will just make stagflation worse. So for me it will stay a day trader paradise but I will be very slow to establish long term holds.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Guess I better change my statistics as to when to buy-


From David Rosenberg
(flagged by Peter Boockvar):
“Remember this: The Fed went on hold in February 1989, and while there was a nice
tradable rally, the reality is that the low in the equity market wasn’t turned in until October
1990—twenty months after the pause. The Fed stopped tightening in May 2000, and the
market low didn’t come until October 2002, over two years later. And the Fed moved to
the sidelines in June 2006, and the lows didn’t come until March 2009.” I’ll add this, the
Fed started cutting rates in January 2001 and the market bottomed in October 2002. The
Fed started slashing rates in September 2007 and the market bottomed in March 2009.”

[BullBear52x]

From 'It is what it is department" Last sell setup on a daily trend following FAILED. What's next? dips will be bought.

Price action look into what's going on in the past month. the sell the rip were fine and all until Fed showed up or the Gap and Go already gave us the heads up?.

Individual investors are NOT convincing on this bull run.

New Highs/New Lows also weak to lift the index to a solid bullish territory. Cautionary to continue.

Big picture using Fib from ATH to recent Low. we are back inside the no man's land between 38.2 to 61.8%. bear market has a stop on it for now until we trade back under 38.2% which is not much from here for this whole market to head back down again. for now, it is unpredictable (no man's land) until then.

Intraday: Friday ended the day with positive price action. as overbought as is, I would not go fully bearish on intraday level until there is clear signs of negative price action at the minimum. only price pays. Trade well. Peace!

[JFR]

From 'It is what it is department" Last sell setup on a daily trend following FAILED. What's next? dips will be bought.

The attachment 1.PNG is no longer available

Price action look into what's going on in the past month. the sell the rip were fine and all until Fed showed up or the Gap and Go already gave us the heads up?.

The attachment 2.PNG is no longer available

Individual investors are NOT convincing on this bull run.

The attachment 3.PNG is no longer available

New Highs/New Lows also weak to lift the index to a solid bullish territory. Cautionary to continue.

The attachment 4.PNG is no longer available

Big picture using Fib from ATH to recent Low. we are back inside the no man's land between 38.2 to 61.8%. bear market has a stop on it for now until we trade back under 38.2% which is not much from here for this whole market to head back down again. for now, it is unpredictable (no man's land) until then.

The attachment 5.PNG is no longer available

Intraday: Friday ended the day with positive price action. as overbought as is, I would not go fully bearish on intraday level until there is clear signs of negative price action at the minimum. only price pays. Trade well. Peace!

The attachment 6.PNG is no longer available

Excellent stuff, BB52. Very thorough.

Your concepts and charts can benefit many people. I always pay close attention to what you post.

Thanks for sharing.

I especially like this one, which you post from time to time.

Of course, I have my own methods. I am more of a momentum player.

[koolblue]

Interesting article from Sean Williams ( Motely Fool: