Cobra's Market View

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Lower high (therefore the high was in) or not, wait and see.

SPY 15 minutes.

What goes up, must come down.

Good moves yesterday, in the pre-market, and the regular market. Some up. Some down.

ES daily.

Strong move up since July 19. Inside bar, and a doji so far. Eyes on 4300, a key level previously.

ES 60 minutes.

All around the Pivot.

Strong move up Wednesday. Backsliding Thursday. Today ... we will see.

ES 5 minutes.

It seems both the bulls and the bears are ready for action.

Price is hanging around the Pivot.

Skeptic's Perspective On This Rally:

1) The slowdown in CPI is due to a recent crash in commodities. Natural gas has now rallied and is nearing new highs for the year again. Oil has taken a sharp leg up of late. Were these trends to continue, the CPI would likely rebound. Grains are barely off the lows, so still early to say if food inflation will pick up again. Obviously, it needs to be monitored.
2) The Fed has not launched a new QE program. The balance sheet is shrinking, not expanding. Were the balance sheet at new all time highs, it could be argued the market will follow, but not only is it continuing to fall but there is no QE program announced that would permit that. Therefore, the bulls are attempting to rally this market on something else entirely than the Fed. Risky, considering there has not been a rally since 2008 that was not driven first by a Fed QE program and new all-time highs in the balance sheet. (Exception: Markets did push a bit higher in 2018/2019 while the Fed was shrinking its balance sheet, but all the gains were wiped out by Covid until the 2020 explosion.)
3) The pace of reduction has been extremely slow, so the S&P pushing near all time highs again makes total sense. It just doesn't follow that it will make new all time highs before some major re-test of the lows or even a breakdown to new lows.

ES 5 minutes. Choppy move up off the low.

From Ending diagonal to Megaphone.

Inside day, you know the routine, It's Friday!

NYSE Tick and ES. 1 minute.

Volatility is the game. Wild gyrations in the Tick, all above zero. Some sharp moves in the ES.

Like the police roll call Sergeant said: "Let's be careful out there."

ES 5 minutes. Chopping along. Ughhly.

Back later ...

Momentum trader, Bearish crossed on 5 min. will align bearish crossed. sell will be a better play.

Overnight gap up is the game from trading house to keep market float higher, this type of action is only to buy time, decaying the put price, eventually all gain will be erased.

BullBear52x wrote:Overnight gap up is the game from trading house to keep market float higher, this type of action is only to buy time, decaying the put price, eventually all gain will be erased.

80% up gains from the 1990 till now are made by overnight low volume moves

marcueus2 wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:Overnight gap up is the game from trading house to keep market float higher, this type of action is only to buy time, decaying the put price, eventually all gain will be erased.

80% up gains from the 1990 till now are made by overnight low volume moves

Only government can corner the market, the Wallstreet can not do this. noooo

Bullish blue, pink is common pattern intraday.

Seller by TRIN starts to show up today. at 50% fib retracement. They shown up at 38.2% also but the bulls breakout, now we are sitting at 50% and the seller starts to try again.

Busy so I missed the 11 am breakout then again 12 pm breakout so too late to say it's an uptrend day now.