Cobra's Market View

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It's the very first test of EMA20 in awhile so could attract some sellers.

A view of HIGHLOWS this year shows that the various pullbacks since Jan went much deeper (pink circles) than the HL now.
This could be interpreted as: we have a ways to go
Chart is daily, as of yesterday's close

4 minutes, CNBC, yesterday
"The removal of Fed puts has caused these bear market challenges, says Ritholtz CEO Josh Brown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGieQmTQcK0

The big three
plus

US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI ACTUAL 52.8 (FORECAST 51.9, PREVIOUS 52.8)

Tommorrow after NFP we should get under 3800

Mr. B is still on vacation and flat, but we have some interesting NYMO news this morning.

We are well into a down cycle, and for the first time in a long time, NYMO has tanked into the "Oversold Zone."
A close somewhere in this neighborhood puts edge (not a guaranty) for a trip to the middle keltner band in the cards.
One can entertain possibilities beyond the middle keltner (the gap at 4228.48 looks interesting), but the oversold zone state does not offer an edge to dreamier levels (just a possibility).

This does not mean we are at a local low (could be), but a tradeable low may get set in the days ahead.
It is just time to look for cues and pay attention to setups.
As I write, the down gap at SPX 3921.05 just got closed (nice).

It is hard to think up here, but my next trade may be long. I don't know what will happen, but we shall see.
I will focus when I get back in the saddle next week.

A sharp correction was expected and predicted by Cletus, but I can admit to not expecting a straight line down with few pauses. In any case, we are reaching some oversold levels on the McClellan Oscillator, so a bounce could happen any time, but it is looking increasingly like this correction could extend further before the GAP FILL I mentioned will fill which is way up above 4000 on SPX. All gaps will fill though. No Fed stimulus means no bottom. Cletus was clear about that and he was dead on.

Attempt to fill the July 27 gap
Today's gap down resulted in a kind of "abandoned baby" (pink line) so far.
This shows on the 5m and 30m and....
Very unusual to have a baby so far apart in time.
I don't know what to think about that.... let's see the close...

2 consecutive good looking bull bars, so maybe we had the range low.

SENTIMENT: Options traders flip to put buying

The short view
SHORT
30m

I don't know what to think about crude. I do know that soon the Admin will stop selling the strategic reserve, I think this month or next. I do know that the commentators say this futures market is extremely thin.

Sold my SPXU and starting to buy UPRO. Can't expect it to go down in a straight line

Tinted area is the mini target, need exceeds it to know maybe the range low was in.

Bigger picture on oil. Please note Natty has fully recovered without our exports recovering. Sometime this fall that 18% of export capacity that is off line is going to be turned on.

If you can stand ordinary income San Juan Trust is an all gas royalty trust. The other three I watch are a mix of crude and gas. Tiny Cross Timbers Royalty Trust, Sabine Trust and the Permian Basin Trust. SJT, CRT, SBR and PBT. If you were wondering why PBT is paying around 4% when the others are close to 11% it is because the operator did a lot of drilling and the new wells are being paid for out of cash flow. I do not recommend these trusts to anyone as I do not give investment advice!

Wave count looking like we will be trying 3900 again.

jademann wrote:Sold my SPXU and starting to buy UPRO. Can't expect it to go down in a straight line

check this if you say it can not go down in a straight line
"https://stooq.pl/q/?s=wig20&c=3m&t=c&a=lg&b=0"

it is great indicator for USA, as GS makes 50% of daily volume

Cobra wrote:Members only update at 12:02 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/09 ... ay-update/

SWEET thanks boss