09/13/2022 Live Update

[Cobra]

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This bull shall have legs.

[Cobra]

I may have no update until noon today, have an important appointment.

[marcueus2]

downtrend resume, CPI is worse than expected 8,3vs 8,1 expected

[daytradingES]

Headline CPI came hotter than expected rising 0.1% MoM vs expectations of -0.1% MoM. That is the 27th straight month of rising inflation.Perhaps more notably, Core CPI was dramatically hotter than expected rising 0.6% MoM (vs +0.3% exp)

[brokebybernacke2]

Stock market long term investing has been relatively simple for decades, buy during QE, sell/protect during QT. Investors well trained to jump on anything looking like a V bottom, must ask , can u have V bottom during QT? History says its tough.

[JFR]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-st ... =home-page

U.S. stocks opened sharply lower Tuesday as investors reacted to a stronger-than-expected inflation reading for August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.93% dropped more than 500 points, or 1.7%, soon after the opening bell, while the S&P 500 SPX, -2.33% fell 2.2% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, -3.07% dropped 2.9%, according to FactSet data, at last check. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday that the consumer price index showed U.S. inflation rose 0.1% in August for an annual rate of 8.3%. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast that CPI data would show a 0.1% drop in August. So-called core inflation, which excludes food and gas prices, rose 0.6% last month. The core CPI reading was also more than forecast, fueling investor concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to be more aggressive fighting inflation through large interest rate hikes that risk triggering a recession.

[Al_Dente]

Options traders diverged yesterday
and they were right

[JFR]

ES daily. Down sharply, as noted, beneath the EMA 20.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes. Crashhhh. 3 days up, as shown. And then down through R1, the Pivot, S1 and S2. Testing beneath a strong support level.

PermaBulls, beware. Stay away from sharp objects and high places.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. A sh** kicking for the market. All the air has gone out of it. Now limping along the bottom.

Taking a break ...

[Al_Dente]

91% of stocks are declining ... $NYDEC:$NYTOT

Here are the OEX-100 large caps, sorted by reds, intraday

[brokebybernacke2]

Bonds, that is where the danger lies...on a cliff.

[90ufo]

is today a 9 to 1 down day? Sep09 was a 9to1 up day.

[jademann]

Bonds, that is where the danger lies...on a cliff.

I cant even guess how low TLT will go. I suspect Yield will have to reach 5% at some point. Its currently 3.5%.. So it could see $80!

[brokebybernacke2]

Bonds, that is where the danger lies...on a cliff.

I cant even guess how low TLT will go. I suspect Yield will have to reach 5% at some point. Its currently 3.5%.. So it could see $80!

Boss, she needs to u turn soon.

[jademann]

Bonds, that is where the danger lies...on a cliff.

Boss, she needs to u turn soon.

I might be a buyer when it is clear rates have peaked. perhaps around 5%..

[JFR]

Alternatives. All fall down. Except for UUP.

Falling: DBC, IAU, IYR, SPYG, SPYV, TLT, USO.

Rising: UUP.

[brokebybernacke2]

Bonds, that is where the danger lies...on a cliff.

Boss, she needs to u turn soon.

I might be a buyer when it is clear rates have peaked. perhaps around 5%..

chatter is rate cuts are OFF table for 2023...

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Panda Master Wu has his public count up. Pretty standard for Elliott Wave. What he doesn't say is this is still an alternate count. Primary (up) isn't broken yet.

[brokebybernacke2]

The vix is only at 25. Either these last few weeks/months are just a yawner, or we have not seen real volatility yet. I'd prefer the former btw, don't want to see latter.