05/05/2012 Weekend Discussion

[Cobra]

this kind of selling usually means the very first rebound would fail.

[alvian33]

nice cobra, now you start to post even before monday, I think your wife will love you less, even though we would love you more

[cougar]

Official exit polls in Greece: PASK + New Democracy < 47% of votes . Polarization of votes to the extremes makes practically impossible the creation of a “coalition pro-bailout cabinet“. The only “salvation” = bribing and attracting an extreme party to join the center coalition. This has less than a 30% chance to happen in one week - IMHO… Put your seatbelts on. This is not “fabricated-minor-news CNBC style”…

You are right, this is not good. Better also get that helmet on at the same time in case of big rocks starting to fly around.

Very interesting…from “Athens News”: “With half of votes counted, aggregate of support for parties that are unlikely/certain not to enter parliament is 18%“. This is HUGE and potentially a game changer! I keep watching!

More precisely: Percentage aggregate vote for parties not making 3 percent #parliamentary treshold stands at 18.31 percent.

Thanks. Keep us informed. I think this is the major reason why we had the pullbacks those days, because there're chances that Greece will break the promise.

Absolutely! If Markets don't like uncertainty...now they really got it in Europe!

[KeiZai]

commodities are toast

[cougar]

EURO / US$ = 1.2988

[Cobra]

nice cobra, now you start to post even before monday, I think your wife will love you less, even though we would love you more

I'm working on optimizing parameters for portfolio system now. spent the whole afternoon, finally found why I couldn't reproduce the performance I achieved the other day, so my progress already delayed, have to continue working tonight. Mostly it's computer iterating all the parameters, so I can watch the market while let the program run.

[KeiZai]

EURO / US$ = 1.2988

IN FREE FALL
1.270 next target

[Cobra]

wow, look at the euro.

[Cobra]

wild-est-est-est guess.

[Al_Dente]

Interesting that very shortly after tonight’s open, perma-bear zerohedge was already reminding us of last year’s intervention:
“… initial indications are for a full spectrum Risk Off market. In fact …ES… have not fallen this fast over a two- or three-day period since the third week of November last year. As many may remember - a few days of drops like this took ES from 1260 to 1136 in a week but more importantly was followed very quickly by a massive and coordinated Central Bank intervention that ripped ES over 6% higher in an overnight session - sparking the entire rally of the last six months…” [underlining emphasis mine]

Francois Hollande resume:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-0 ... dates.html

[SWalsh]

Well, the market predicted the French election just as it did many major battles of WW II, including Midway. (really..Barton Bigg's covered how the mkt jumped weeks before major victories in WW II)

Unfortunately, the French voted to become Greeks. Putin has to be loving this Sarkozy loss.

It will be quite telling as to what our very own Joker http://tinyurl.com/79rn7xt hands out to win, now that AUSTERITY IS DEAD!

Bull market gonna hold? I suspect a fair number of people are not aware of the pretty much across the board tax hikes coming in January.

Just like Alec Guinness in Star Wars when the Death Star destroyed a planet, I hear the voices of thousands from Arlington National Cemetery screaming, "I died for this shit?"

Money, Money, Money, Money:

[SWalsh]

Mostly it's computer iterating all the parameters, so I can watch the market while let the program run.

Just out of curiosity, roughly how many parameters are you running?

[Cobra]

Mostly it's computer iterating all the parameters, so I can watch the market while let the program run.

Just out of curiosity, roughly how many parameters are you running?

7 Major 2 minor. Need very powerful machine to optimize in one round. Right now my i7 machine cannot do one round, have to do twice. get the rough range first then get the final value.

[Cobra]

bear flag, so maintain the wild-est-est-est guess.

[Mr. BachNut]

Trend Map:
All trend lines from October low are now closed. Not good.
Red head and shoulders line getting broken tomorrow it looks like. Not good.
Perhaps a bounce gets index back to the green circle where minor down trend line and H&S neckline should provide resistance, but who knows...

[SWalsh]

Mostly it's computer iterating all the parameters, so I can watch the market while let the program run.

Just out of curiosity, roughly how many parameters are you running?

7 Major 2 minor. Need very powerful machine to optimize in one round. Right now my i7 machine cannot do one round, have to do twice. get the rough range first then get the final value.

You probably know this, but after optimizing, change each parameter just a little and see what happens. Systems often breakdown because they were curve-fitted. Also, leaving out the last 3-6 months of trading and then seeing how it would have worked when applied to that can give one a decent idea if one could trade it. I'm a big fan of defining when I think the odds are favorable, but not systems where when you do something like change an RSI setting from 92 to 87 it falls apart. Good luck.

[Cobra]

update, no comments.

[Cobra]

Mostly it's computer iterating all the parameters, so I can watch the market while let the program run.

Just out of curiosity, roughly how many parameters are you running?

7 Major 2 minor. Need very powerful machine to optimize in one round. Right now my i7 machine cannot do one round, have to do twice. get the rough range first then get the final value.

You probably know this, but after optimizing, change each parameter just a little and see what happens. Systems often breakdown because they were curve-fitted. Also, leaving out the last 3-6 months of trading and then seeing how it would have worked when applied to that can give one a decent idea if one could trade it. I'm a big fan of defining when I think the odds are favorable, but not systems where when you do something like change an RSI setting from 92 to 87 it falls apart. Good luck.

Thanks. I know I cannot over optimize and this is why it takes so long to complete my system - I cannot decide to which degree I should optimize my system.

[KeiZai]

BMW: Breakdown through 23.6 and party can start (a matter of time...gap filling first)

[KeiZai]

Fractal? (EURUSD)