10/27/2022 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Don't know what pattern it is, head and shoulders top? Which usually fails anyway.

[BullBear52x]

same playbook, daily sell the rip triggered yesterday makes today a strong sell.

[merryme]

Still using this chart which showed the turning point exactly again. Using it until it breaks.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:06 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/10 ... ay-update/

[BullBear52x]

Not as bearish now, failed break down. think Auction!

[BullBear52x]

$SKEW is still suggest sideways to down market. $CPC is also >1

[BullTart]

Major move down in the dollar yesterday... where did all that money go? not into stocks... but into bonds.

That's why stocks didn't do well yesterday, and bonds did. Big red flag.

This rally is fugazi - finished topping up adding additional shorts over the past three trading sessions.. final add right here at SPX 3845.

Am fully loaded short now, no dry powder to add - now it's just waiting time.

[Cobra]

We may have the range high and low of the day. (range high/low means roughly, not exactly the high/low)

[BullBear52x]

It is bearish that we have daily swing lower lows. but we don't have a bearish reversal to make it official, today bears need to get one, or it will look confusing like right now, daily trades over 20 DMA and under 50 DMA, Kissing it but not fully reject until we have bearish reversal. so, bears need to close under the open, it should not be that hard when $CPC >1

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Newsfeed says managed mutual funds (not index funds) are positioned for a Fed reversal. And why not the Fed has show zero backbone when things break.

Newsfeed also showed everybody is looking at the wrong seasonal chart. Apparently there is a seperate one for bear markets and it doesn't look that hot for November.

Yesterday the folks at Convergent with the fancy software that groups trades by three sizes were saying the small lot traders (us) were the only ones active in the ES and RTY.

Today the pros said the data releases give zero reason for the Fed to back down from a .75 hike next week. Goldman said they expect buyback cash for this round to be about 10% less than last year.

McClelland's S&P 500 Oscillator is once again showing market ready for a sell off. Makes sense, you have to get really over bought for the dry powder for a down side explosion.

[jademann]

Guys, they might try to get the VIX down to 25.5 or 23 before a reversal
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VI ... 0599455137
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX& ... 1309525406

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:07 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/10 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

Performance of the top holdings in SPY show the non-techs (dashed lines; XOM, UNH, BRK/B) are leading...
Techs (solid lines) are not so good.
This means either 1) SPY will need to "catch-down" .... or 2) the other 490+ stocks in the SPY must do GREAT to offset all the tech downs

Also as you know: Twitter (TWTR) will be delisted effective Friday after the close TOMORROW if/when Musk, TSLA, completes the deal.

[Al_Dente]

YTD performance of some key sectors shows health-orange, banks-red and smalls-cyan leading.
Will that be enough to sustain the SPY bounce?
[the usual caveat: as with all performance charts, if you change the timeframe you will get a different picture]

[brokebybernacke2]

Performance of the top holdings in SPY show the non-techs (dashed lines; XOM, UNH, BRK/B) are leading...
Techs (solid lines) are not so good.
This means either 1) SPY will need to "catch-down" .... or 2) the other 490+ stocks in the SPY must do GREAT to offset all the tech downs

Screenshot 2022-10-27 093240.jpg

Also as you know: Twitter (TWTR) will be delisted effective Friday after the close TOMORROW if/when Musk, TSLA, completes the deal.

Only 5 stocks, yes, just FIVE, were resp. for >50% of the broad benchmark gain last year in 2021. (Apple, Google, Tesla, Msft, and Nvda) - does that work in the opposite direction? (sorry for the multiple facetious comments).

[Al_Dente]

[quote="brokebybernacke2"[/quote]
Only 5 stocks, yes, just FIVE, were resp. for >50% of the broad benchmark gain last year in 2021. (Apple, Google, Tesla, Msft, and Nvda) - does that work in the opposite direction? .....[/quote]


THANKS BOSS

[JFR]

ES daily. It's been trying to break out above resistance for 3 days. Sliding back a bit today.

[merryme]

Where is B = Nov going to print?

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes. It's in a tangled, choppy mess beneath the Pivot.

[JFR]

SPY 1 minute. Point and Figure.

Trend down since Wednesday.