12/09/2022 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Don't know what pattern it is. If the current big red closes near the low of the bar then likely bias is down the Dec 7 lows would be tested.

[JFR]

ES daily. Day 21 in this base. Beneath the EMA 20.

[JFR]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock ... od=markets

U.S. stock futures tumbled on Friday, erasing earlier gains, after the latest batch of inflation data showed producer prices accelerated faster than some economists expected last month. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.55% were off 158 points, or 0.5%, at 33,885 after the data, erasing an earlier gain. Futures for the S&P 500 SPX, +0.75% tumbled 21 points, or 0.6%, to 3,944, while futures for the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +1.13% were down 68.25 points, or 0.6%, to 33,885. The core producer price index rose 0.4% during the month of November, beating expectations for a 0.2% gain, while the headline PPI data came in at 0.3%, surpassing expectations for a 0.2% increase.

[JFR]

YM 60 minutes.

The Pivot, S1 and R1 are all in play.

Charts are acting up on NinjaTrader, depending on your data feed, possibly. ES for 60 minutes only shows up to Dec 8. Also EMA 20 skews ES 5 minute charts. Gawd. Computers!X?! But I can still trade from the charts, so that keeps my temper in check. Ha ha.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. without the EMA 20.

Huge reaction to the PPI. Are we not all rich on this website? Does anyone really worry about inflation? Ha ha. OK, we keep an eye on it, just to see it stays within some norms.

[Al_Dente]

RARE MISS:
Costco (COST) uncharacteristically missed earnings estimates after the bell on Thursday. The retailer reported $3.07 in earnings per share on $53.44B in revenue, compared to analyst expectations of $3.12 and $54.68B, respectively. The miss wasn't seen as major, with the stock hardly moving in response, but it did suggest that many shoppers are paring back on bigger ticket items.

[Al_Dente]

10:00 Consumer Sentiment
10:00 Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)

[BullBear52x]

Day #3 of inside day. the wave guru will think wave 4 is likely a play here.

[brokebybernacke2]

Day #3 of inside day. the wave guru will think wave 4 is likely a play here.

ridiculous call premiums, sellers jacking up prices for the Christmas Rally anticipation

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Up off the mat. Who's afraid of the big, bad inflation? Another relatively flat day in the markets? We will see ...

Taking a break.

[BullBear52x]

Look at price level where Fed raised rate. looks like we might come back to 3800+ area on the next rate hike.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:08 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/12 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

It's a morning hourly hollow red

[Al_Dente]

Calls were favored for a moment... now they're back to buying puts

[Al_Dente]

ERY is 2x short XLE energy

[Mr. BachNut]

Rambling BachNut today...

The NYMO cycle has finally confirmed DOWN.
The benchmark at the up cycle high is SPX 3905.42.
The model gives good odds for trade to occur at or below the benchmark by the time the downcycle ends.
However, from time to time, these benchmarks get stranded for a few cycles, but all get closed ultimately.

We have an open down gap at SPX 3933.92 that is close enough to be magnetic.
There are other gaps above and below that a more directional market can address.

After piercing the 200 MA, the index found resistance at the declining tops line and has pulled back.
Importantly, the 11/17 low has not been broken. So, for now, bulls have a higher high and higher low.
Looks like a consolidation with a pop at November month end to me...
So, we patiently wait for Mr. Market to show directional movement.
That said, bulls kinda need to make a higher high to pass this test of the 200 MA and break that declining tops line.
It is a failure if they don't.

While we consolidate, the middle keltner band appears to be rising into the consolidation.
So, the bulls surge toward the upper keltner, starting last month, is looking wimpy at the moment.
Perhaps a second try will be on the menu.
Interestingly, the upper keltner is starting to fall while the lower keltner is rising.
The outer bands remain far apart, but the table is being set for something.

Next week is quarter end OPEX plus CPI plus FOMC. What fun...
I consider the last two weeks of the year to be seasonally bullish.
So, after the news clears, perhaps we get directional market one way or another.
We shall see.

I am flat. It has been weird lately with sudden big moves that have limited follow-through. CHOP CHOP.
My NYMO related swing setups have locked, not been triggered and cancelled a few times. Unusual.
The setups are teed up to short at the moment, but I don't know what will happen nor do I have confidence they will pay.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Climbing a trendline, up to resistance.

[BullBear52x]

If well informed traders were careless about the yield curve, we are really in trouble. the Fed hates this chart. lower end still well above the longer ends. The Fed needs to raise rate a lot more. Recession or Inflation? you cannot have your cake and eat it too. right?

[JFR]

Rambling BachNut today...

The NYMO cycle has finally confirmed DOWN.
The benchmark at the up cycle high is SPX 3905.42.
The model gives good odds for trade to occur at or below the benchmark by the time the downcycle ends.
However, from time to time, these benchmarks get stranded for a few cycles, but all get closed ultimately.

We have an open down gap at SPX 3933.92 that is close enough to be magnetic.
There are other gaps above and below that a more directional market can address.

After piercing the 200 MA, the index found resistance at the declining tops line and has pulled back.
Importantly, the 11/17 low has not been broken. So, for now, bulls have a higher high and higher low.
Looks like a consolidation with a pop at November month end to me...
So, we patiently wait for Mr. Market to show directional movement.
That said, bulls kinda need to make a higher high to pass this test of the 200 MA and break that declining tops line.
It is a failure if they don't.

While we consolidate, the middle keltner band appears to be rising into the consolidation.
So, the bulls surge toward the upper keltner, starting last month, is looking wimpy at the moment.
Perhaps a second try will be on the menu.
Interestingly, the upper keltner is starting to fall while the lower keltner is rising.
The outer bands remain far apart, but the table is being set for something.

Next week is quarter end OPEX plus CPI plus FOMC. What fun...
I consider the last two weeks of the year to be seasonally bullish.
So, after the news clears, perhaps we get directional market one way or another.
We shall see.

I am flat. It has been weird lately with sudden big moves that have limited follow-through. CHOP CHOP.
My NYMO related swing setups have locked, not been triggered and cancelled a few times. Unusual.
The setups are teed up to short at the moment, but I don't know what will happen nor do I have confidence they will pay.

NYMO 120922.jpg

Thanks, Mr. BachNut. I always look forward to your views. By the way, I never truly appreciated Bach until I heard Yo-Yo Ma play Bach's Cello Suite No. 1 in G Major. And that captured me. Also Glenn Gould playing the Goldberg Variations.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I523eR7CI_c

And, yes, I heard it first on The West Wing. Sorry for the T.V. drama, but it did turn me on to Bach.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cwas_7H5KUs

[Cobra]

Maybe we had range high and low.