01/05/2022 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Again, in a range, no clear direction. The size of the range is getting smaller and smaller, definitely waiting for something which I assume is the tomorrow's Non Farm Payroll report.

[JFR]

ES daily.

Very wide base. Inside bar/candlestick. Beneath the EMA 20.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes.

While there is relative calm on the daily, on the 60 minute, there has been lots of action, with huge candlesticks.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Nice move up, and then a nice move down. Fairly smooth. That will likely change to chop, at the open.

[JFR]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold- ... od=markets

Back later ...

[BullBear52x]

Magnet.

[marcueus2]

market wants to go down, it is one of this rare cases when CFD on spx is trading few points lower than index itself and it always show right direction

[BullBear52x]

If yesterday's high were "E" then we should breakdown today. if it's not then we are going back up to find 'E" in any cases, like Cobra boss kept reminding us that, this is a continuation pattern, in E-wave view it is wave 2 or 4 characteristics a break down will be 3 or 5. if it is 3 it will drop a good 200-300 points. ouch! well, just a TA talk during uncertainty sideways action

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:08 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/01 ... ay-update/

[Mr. BachNut]

The NYMO cycle is UP!
A low was put in on 12/19, and we have been making higher highs and lows since.

Price has been range-bound ever since the NYMO low on 12/19.
Perhaps this is a bear flag as price consolidates through this up cycle. I don't know.
Price did make higher highs and higher lows in both November and December. So, there's something bullish.
Another bullish thing is that the market seems to be getting less downside sensitive to hawkish Fed speak and positive economic news.
I see a big coil around the middle keltner band with price joggling in the mid-section between the August high and October low.
In a word, we are Trendless at the moment.
Let's see what happens when this range of the last few weeks breaks.

There are open gaps above and below that merit closure.
There are a bunch above from last year that are technically stranded and irrelevant for now.

I am flat and have been for awhile. Took it easy over the holiday's.
I seek to buy trends, and SPX doesn't qualify at the moment.
That will change. My next trade could be long, short or both in succession.
I haven't got a clue...
I have been working trends in other assets in the meantime to pay the bills.

[Cobra]

Nothing to say, just another boring range day, probably waiting for the tomorrow's job data which must be very bad in order for the market to go up, ironically.

[Al_Dente]

BANKS and RECESSION PREDICTIONS:
More than two-thirds of 23 large financial institutions—which include trading firms and investment banks that do business directly with the Federal Reserve—expect the U.S. economy fall into a recession in 2023 and that millions of Americans will lose their jobs... and unemployment will peak at more than 5 percent.
They expect consumer spending to weaken as Americans deplete their savings and an aggressive Fed drives up borrowing costs and as banks’ lending standards get tighter...
In their most recent summary of economic projections, Fed officials said they expect the terminal Fed Funds rate—meaning the highest level before it hits a ceiling and later falls—to come in at 5.1 percent.
[WSJ via zh]

[Al_Dente]

Note BBBY
(bankruptcy fears, again)

[Al_Dente]

This guy has a 100% record for predicting recessions:
“My yield-curve indicator has gone code red, and it’s 8 for 8 in forecasting recessions since 1968 — with no false alarms,"
.... it’s probably not a harbinger for a recession.... [huh?]
https://www.livemint.com/economy/us-eco ... 45218.html

[BullBear52x]

Bad employment this time will not be bullish, $Gapgdp already turned down, the only thing that hold us up is good employment number, if you are bullish, you want to see a good employment. but the layoff announcement/planned from big corps are not looking good end of this quarter.

[Al_Dente]

Note BA breakout

[Al_Dente]

Apple Joins Amazon as Second Company to Lose $1 Trillion in Value in 2022
[gizmodo, Axios and elsewhere]

[jademann]

I went flat when SPXU hit 17.33. trying to decide when to reenter the market. Is it time for the VIX breakout?

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:07 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/01 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

More and more like a descending triangle so breakdown is more likely now.