Cobra's Market View

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Broadening top as top or continuation pattern, wait and see.

ES daily.

Yup, we are in another base. All around strong support/resistance level at 3935.

ES 60 minutes.

Big downer on Wednesday and Thursday.

Recovery on Friday.

SPY 5 minutes.

Very nice, smooth price action.

I will miss much of the action today, as I am away from the desktop.

''Let's be careful out there.''

Very overbought short term. market started up in a weird way per internals, well, no reversal to say it's fake yet. dip will be bought until then....

4008 approaches. line in the sand for bears.

Longer term chart showing the falling channel we are in...

I think if we have a sustained trade over 4008 which Jademann pointed out, we will break out of the channel, north bound...

But, I need to remind myself, we're not there yet (don't front run!!).....

Major resistance coming up!!

Counter trend, Negative D. profit taking spot. /ES looking up 4030, 5 more points will be a good place to lighten up.

Not yet (2 min to go), but if the current bar closes near the high of the day then it's an early sign of an uptrend day.

This is a pretty typical wave count from the internet. Their entire premise is that the first hard drop is going to just keep on dropping. But real systems arn't linear. Bob Farrel told us what to look for, hard drop major pullback then the long drawn out grind down. Louis Rukeyser and Peter Lynch told us when it is over. That is when no one will talk about the market at a cocktail party (ok, they were both east coast types).
The pullback is very close to invalidating this entire count. I think in another three months the liquidity for a short squeeze like we have had, or if you prefer, bullish seasonals, will be totally eaten up by Treasury and Fed. Until then I stick with the day trading and waiting for a complex count to emerge.

Trend following, dips will be bought. my red line if there will be a negative price action today, or the bears will have to wait until turn around Tuesday, not today.

Counter trend, I think we are topping here today, but trend following will buy dip first then will see from here. 3 push up ?

Trades w 2 Cats wrote:

^SP500 (Daily) 2023_01_23 (9_40_56 AM).png

This is a pretty typical wave count from the internet. Their entire premise is that the first hard drop is going to just keep on dropping. But real systems arn't linear. Bob Farrel told us what to look for, hard drop major pullback then the long drawn out grind down. Louis Rukeyser and Peter Lynch told us when it is over. That is when no one will talk about the market at a cocktail party (ok, they were both east coast types).
The pullback is very close to invalidating this entire count. I think in another three months the liquidity for a short squeeze like we have had, or if you prefer, bullish seasonals, will be totally eaten up by Treasury and Fed. Until then I stick with the day trading and waiting for a complex count to emerge.

Nice chart, see same thing here for now until new HH from recent HL to kill that count for me.

Count I am following was expecting more of a pullback but what we got was fine. Real question is will this look like a big wave 3 up after FOMC. Which to me, is asking if the market is willing to ignore Mike Wilson who is saying earnings reduction is not priced in. Personally I expect this wave count to blow up after we get into the meat of earnings. It is way too soon to have the bear low already in place.

Last time we had Guns & Butter economy (Johnson, Nixion) it took Volker to regain control. Powell has been clear he saw that. We haven't even had a good taste of what Volker put us through so far.

Vertical Accumulation. Everyone wants in now.

Good sideways soft landing nothing bullish until we can regain above 4100 on cash SPX.