Cobra's Market View

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Pennant, just a little too big, so maybe bias is a little little bit down.

ES daily.

After 3 moves up, day 3 of the pullback.

Just profit taking? A serious move by the bears?

In between the high of December and the EMA 20.

ES 60 minutes.

In a range for a day and a half. Breakdown beneath the Pivot.

ES 5 minutes.

In a base. Playable as scalps and day trades, but with a quick trigger finger.

Source ...

https://stockcharts.com/articles/tradin ... a-112.html

With the stock market, Tom Bowley is a Perma Bull imo. Ya gotta have a bias, for whatever time frame you trade.

I subscribed with his service back in 2011 for a year. It was fine seeing all that he offered. But we trade differently.

I would say he traded off daily charts, and not as a day trader. After analyzing a move up and a pullback, he would say in his room, "Enter somewhere around here." Ha ha. But he gave you all his ideas, and he would analyze any stock that people asked about. Pretty good at calling the overall market I would say. He looks longer term than me. I start with daily charts, but work down from there. When the market is not in a strong trend up or down, I tend to be a day trader on the indexes, with ETFs and futures, both long and short.

So I respect what he says, but calling the market long term is not for me. With the right stock and a good chart, I will make some swing trades, holding overnight until the chart changes.

As noted, his ideas have some value for me, but I am not a Perma Bull, nor a Perma Bear. Posting this is not intended to be controversial. It is just sharing information from a source I respect, even with differences.

Here are a couple of excerpts from his article on StockCharts.

The Fed and Inflation

On Wednesday, the Fed acknowledged it's winning the war on inflation. We'll probably see one more 25 basis point hike in the fed funds rate, but beyond that, I see a much more dovish Fed. I believe rates will come down later in 2023 and, if the January jobs report was any indication, a very soft landing is entirely possible. Growth with falling rates is NIRVANA for equity prices

.

The Future Path

We've seen a very nice rally. January was one of the strongest on record, the 9th best January on the S&P 500 since 1950. Strong Januarys almost always result in very strong years. It's not a perfect science and certainly not a guarantee, but there's a lot of history that suggests the probabilities of a strong year increase substantially.

BBBY
halted

It's a morning hourly hollow red

ES 5 minutes.

Some bulls are jumping in. Pausing at the Pivot.

Pretty clear as to what would be called a break out or break down.

Apparently this will not be a speech by Powell, rather an interview so no transcript.

VIX EMAs are bottoming..
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VI ... 0599455137

Nothing to say, we're in the yesterday's range so it's just a range day. Now a little consolidation so might still some up rooms, testing yesterday's high?

Must be someone said something. This bull shall have legs.

Back up to 50% SPXU position after that... More rates rises needed!

is this our life now? every week the fed or chair says something and the market goes haywire?

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Wednesday tomorrow looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449381

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449381