Cobra's Market View

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The market still is trying to decide which way to go. Guess the CPI did decrease but not as much as the market wanted. Anyway, overall, we're in a range.

Inflation rose 0.5% in January, hotter than expected
CPI +6.4% YoY (+6.2% expected)

ES daily.

10th day in this range. Back up to the high of December, where it meets resistance that must be overcome.

ES 60 minutes.

Some good moves on the hourly. Spikey at times.

ES 5 minutes.

A drift up starting 4 hours ago. A news spike up and down 40 minutes ago, CPI (Thank you, Pasta Boss). Now drifting down. Lots of action.

Happy Valentine's Day to all who travel through these pages.

Thank you, Cobra.

Chocolate for All.

ES 5 minutes.

Down to the Pivot.

Back later ...

A Valentine's Day ANECDOTE:
A Texas Zoo is offering a Valentine's Day Special:
For a small fee, you can name a cockroach after your ex
Then they will feed the roach to their other critters
It's a pretty popular thing

gap fill already on SPY
but not on AAPL

Break to the new day high with good looking bull bar in the next couple of bars then it's an early sign of an uptrend day.

Call buying, at the moment

Mr. B checking in.
Been awhile... been busy on other matters.

The NYMO cycle is DOWN!
We have a benchmark price of SPX 3997.76 set at the high of the last NYMO up cycle.
NYMO has been bouncing up last few days, which may be a corrective move to the zero line or the start of a new up cycle.
Time will tell. If we are beginning a new up cycle, this benchmark price will get stranded for a while, but all benchmarks get tagged eventually.

Pricewise, we are looking to close a gap above at SPX 4164.
Down below there are three open gaps.

Bulls are presently making a second attempt at the upper keltner band. They barely missed a tag on Feb. 2.
If this push fails to reach the band, presently 4246 and rising, a trip down to the middle keltner and perhaps the lower keltner could be in the cards.
Until the upper keltner band gets tagged, I have a bear bias in the longer term.

I am seeing price in a narrow bull channel within a wide bull channel.
The wide bull channel could be a big bear flag.
Bulls have successfully tested the 200 day MA, which is supportive of the upward price action.

I am flat and have been out of markets on other matters.
While NYMO is negative and in a down cycle, price rules, and my setups have been long since January.

JFR wrote:Happy Valentine's Day to all who travel through these pages.

Thank you, Cobra.

2023-02-14_06-33-31.png

Chocolate for All.

2023-02-14_06-36-04.png

Are you serious? You really would like to thank me? How come you look angry?

Cobra wrote:

JFR wrote:Happy Valentine's Day to all who travel through these pages.

Thank you, Cobra.

The attachment 2023-02-14_06-33-31.png is no longer available

Chocolate for All.

The attachment 2023-02-14_06-36-04.png is no longer available

Are you serious? You really would like to thank me? How come you look angry?

Ha ha.

This is more like me. I can be lazy. Oh, yeah. When I am not on the prowl, that is.

vix down 3% huh

It's the bull's last stand here for a range day. Breakdown in the next couple of bars with good looking bear bar then it's a downtrend day.

So much for transient inflation and now so much for disinflation. Fool me once...
I bought a 30% position in SPXU at 13.18 this morning.

Possible measured move down.

ES 5 minutes.

Active market. Almost schizo. Reaction to the CPI, I expect.