03/10/2022 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Must be a not very good job data, not bad either so the market had no idea where to go for awhile, now maybe decide to go up a little probably mainly because it's already down a lot yesterday. Anyway, generally the rebound would be sold, because the selling leading to the rebound was too sharp.

[Al_Dente]

8:30: Non Farm Payroll
US economy added 311,000 jobs in February, vs 225,000 expected...
while the unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.6% on a rise in labor force participation, vs 3.4% expected.

Random analyst: "... anything above 250K jobs is a signal that January was not an anomaly and that the underlying market is a lot more immune to much tighter lending standards than any of us anticipated.

[Al_Dente]

BANKS in trouble
Note Silicon Valley Bank on the daily (SIVB down -60.41% yesterday) ... it's all over the news

SIVB "... also led weakness in bank stocks, as the S&P Regional Banking fund [KRE, black in the performance chart below... as of yesterday's close] tumbled 8.1% ... as all 143 equity components [of KRE] lost ground."

"STAY CALM" [the SIVB CEO on a conference call]

[JFR]

ES daily.

A doji so far today, indecision. Well beneath the EMA 20. Reaching down through 3900.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Back up above S3, then settling down on the EMA 20.

[JFR]

Source:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobs- ... =home-page

Not my numbers. Not my opinions.

The numbers: The U.S. created a robust 311,000 new jobs in February, raising the odds of another sharp hike in interest rates by the Federal Reserve later this month.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast 225,000 new jobs.

The increase in employment last month followed a revised 504,000 gain (initially 517,000) in January, the government said Friday.

The large back-to-back increases could force the Fed to raise interest rates higher than it had planned to slow the economy and loosen up the tightest labor market in decades. The central bank meets March 21-22 to plot its next move.

Yet there were a few glimmers of hope for the Fed.

The unemployment rate rose a few ticks to 3.6%. Hourly wages rose just 0.2% to mark the smallest increase in a year. And the share of able-bodied people in the labor force climbed to a three-year high.

All of these are pressure valves on the labor market and the broader economy from high inflation.

Investors appeared to put more weight on those factors than another big increase in employment. Stocks rose and bond yields fell.

Big picture: An expanding U.S. economy has shown lots of resilience in the face of rising interest rates, but analysts doubt the good times can last. Higher borrowing costs typically slow the economy by depressing consumer spending and business investment.

Just look at the housing market, where soaring mortgage rates have crushed sales and new construction. The same could happen to the rest of the economy if the Fed has to jack up rates more than Wall Street expects.

Already, a robust U.S. labor market is showing signs of fraying. Job postings have declined, lots of large companies have announced layoffs and workers who lose a job are taking longer to find a new one.

It just might not be enough for the Fed.

Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.66% and S&P 500 SPX, -1.85% trimmed premarket losses in Friday trades. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 3.78%.

Investors hope some signs of cooling in the labor market will encourage the Fed to keep raising interest rates in smaller increments.

[JFR]

Source:

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-gr ... ess_ribbon

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Reaction to jobs report creating cognitive dissidence for me. Some headlines saying larger increases while Zerohedge saying odds of 1/2 percent hike dropping on the Fed rate futures market. I am thinking bring on CPI to resolve this.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

A drop like a stone. Eyes on 3900.

[BullBear52x]

Think auction, same playbook.

[BullBear52x]

/ES looking down to 3850-63, it's Friday, quick ins/Outs.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Several banks I have not head of are halted due to volatility. I am thinking Jay Powell has a real crisis on his hands.

[JFR]

Dow 30.

With the indexes down, this action from the Dow is surprising. About even between the greens and the reds.

Health Care dominating at the top.

Financial and Technology at the bottom.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Hourly forecast. Not going to go that smoothly, but the Fib levels don't lie. This has got the look of a third wave so far.

[JFR]

Alternative markets. 15 minutes.

Including yesterday's action.

Downers: DBC, IYR, SPYG, SPYV, USO, UUP.

Uppers: GLD, TLT.

Back later ...

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:12 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/03 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

Banks are leading (not following) SPX down
Daily

[Mr. BachNut]

Mr. B reporting in...

The NYMO cycle is DOWN!
Interestingly, we are making lower lows in the Turn Zone this morning.
We dipped to the Turn Zone end of January did a corrective bounce to the zero line and have come back down.
Double dipping the Turn Zone like this is funky. Maybe but not necessarily near a low... maybe some bounces/squeezes before we get to a low.
Also, given that some issues are popping up in the banking system (Silicon Valley Bank and friends), it is worth noting that crashy stuff can happen from these NYMO levels despite it being a neighborhood for a turn.
I have no idea what will happen.

Pricewise we closed below the 200 MA yesterday after bouncing up from it at the beginning of the month. We may have a failed test on our hands.
Today has some added funk as we are in the futures contract roll. So, a bit more time to let that clear.
We have a gap at yesterday's close that is in play.
Bulls want to close above the 200 MA to keep things in the 200MA/middle keltner zone.
If bears take control, a trip to the lower keltner and the open gap at 3808 could be on the menu.

I am flat again. The pop last week took me out of shorts for only scale profits.
I have setups to reload shorts on deck, but with NYMO in the Turn Zone, they are dicey.

[Cobra]

Possible higher low (green arrow) so the low might be in for today.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:10 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/03 ... ay-update/