04/12/2023 Live Update

[Cobra]

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The inflation must be gone, zero, never happened...

[Al_Dente]

4/12 ACTUAL, 8:30 :
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) revealed headline inflation rose 0.1% over last month and 5.0% over the prior year in March [slowest since May 2021], a slowdown from February's 0.4% month-over-month increase and 6% annual gain.
On a "core" basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in March climbed 0.4% over the prior month and 5.6% over last year. Both measures were in-line with economist expectations, according to Bloomberg

[JFR]

ES daily.

Day 9 in this range.

Trend up since March 13.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes.

Lots of action. No progress.

A probe up, from the Pivot, through R1, through R2, all the way to 4178. Now sliding back down beneath R2.

[JFR]

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Lots of wealth, looking for a place to park. Of course, most people do not have wealth to allocate to the stock markets.

[Al_Dente]

4/12 TSLA
Elon Musk says Twitter is now roughly breaking even, has about 1,500 employees.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/elon-m ... eid=yhoof2

[Al_Dente]

TRIN at 2.46
top,
but check TRIN at close

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Fed has never cut rates when Fed Funds is below core CPI.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/intere ... -fomc.html
Major change in headline number was the hard drop in energy prices. But, like all trailing indicators that is clearly over.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

My view of the CPI release

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Long view of Natty, currently plodding along at something like a 35 year low. If you have a tax sheltered account there are several publicly traded gas and oil royalty trusts. San Juan Royalty Trust, SJT is as close to 100% Natty as you will find. Royalty distributions go on the same tax schedule as Rents and are counted as ordinary income.

Crude oil got a boost from the OPEC cut.Deep concern in the oil tanker world that the Chinese recovery will slow down and reduce world demand.

Both charts show how CPI got a drop because of energy. Kind of doubting it will repeat.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:06 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/04 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

It's a morning hourly filled black bar

[BullBear52x]

Looks like an attempt to breakout, failed once now tried again.

[BullBear52x]

Intraday, same playbook. a bearish reversal yesterday was strong, bears seems to no power to take this market down, bulls are too rich.

[JFR]

Alternative markets.

Rising: DBC GLD IYR SPYG SPYV USO

Falling: TLT UUP

Back later ...

[BullBear52x]

Watch momentum if the bulls are here to stay, must stay above zero line.

[Al_Dente]

BOX
We'll see how this plays out... stay tuned:
If SPY can't break above the top of the box, the down target would be the bottom line of the box at the 406 zone
60min

[BullBear52x]

Bulls are out of gas again today?

[Cobra]

100% measured move down so probably there's still another leg down.

[BullBear52x]

/ES magnet 4127